美中開打貿易戰將一損俱損

Is it wise to pick a fight with your biggest creditor and trading partner? That is one of the more intriguing questions posed by the prospect of US President Donald Trump .

向自己最大的債權國及貿易伙伴國挑起戰鬥是明智的嗎？這是唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)就任美國總統前景所帶來的耐人尋味的問題之一。

During the campaign, the man who will shortly hold sway over the world’s main reserve currency threatened to brand China a currency manipulator and to impose punitive tariffs to curb the country’s bilateral trade surplus with the US, which is running at close to $400bn a year.

這個不久就能支配世界主要儲備貨幣的男人在競選中威脅要把中國列爲匯率操縱國，並對中國徵收懲罰性關稅，以遏制目前接近每年4000億美元的中美貿易順差。

Since China’s official foreign exchange reserves amounts to $3.1tn, much of which is invested in the US Treasury market, there is scope for devastating retaliatory action that might destabilise global bond markets and inflict serious damage on the world economy.

由於中國官方外匯儲備高達3.1萬億美元——其中很大一部分投資於美國國債——中國是有能力發起毀滅性的報復行動的，其結果或許會破壞全球債券市場的穩定、給世界經濟造成嚴重損害。

The nature of this mutual dependency is that Americans have, in effect, been borrowing from the much poorer Chinese at exceptionally low rates of interest in order to buy the cheap goods that they turn out.

這種相互依賴的本質是，美國人實際上一直在以極低利率向比自己窮得多的中國人借錢，以購買中國人生產的廉價商品。

Yet the benefits of this subsidy to the American consumer have been won at the cost of lost jobs in mature industries across the US.

不過，美國消費者能夠享受這種補貼是有代價的，那就是美國各地的成熟行業流失了大量工作崗位。

This malign consequence of globalisation was so much at the heart of Mr Trump’s electoral appeal that it is hard to see how he can retreat from taking action of some kind against the Chinese.

鑑於全球化的這種負面影響正是特朗普在競選中大聲疾呼的核心話題，要看到他轉變立場不對中國人採取某種行動是很難的。

So the risk that Beijing might seek to sabotage the US Treasury market in retaliation by dumping its Treasury holdings merits exploration.

所以我們有必要探討北京方面採取報復手段、通過拋售美債來破壞美國國債市場的風險。

There have in the past been suggestions in the state-controlled Chinese media that this financial weapon should be used to influence US policy, most notably in response to arms sales to Taiwan.

受政府控制的中國媒體過去有過一種聲音，中方應當利用這件金融武器影響美國政策，尤其是在應對美國對臺軍售這件事上。

Such a policy would cause the dollar to fall and interest rates to rise, thereby threatening the US with recession.

這樣的政策將導致美元下跌、利率上升，從而可能使美國陷入衰退。

Yet this would also inflict heavy losses on China’s dollar-denominated investments.

不過，這也將使中國所做的以美元計價的投資遭受巨大損失。

And finding somewhere else to put the money would be problematic.

而且要找到其他投資目標並不容易。

Newly issued government bonds in Europe and Japan are substantially absorbed by the asset purchase programmes of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

歐洲和日本新發行的政府債券基本上被歐洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)的資產購買項目吸收掉。

More important, with global economic growth anaemic and the Chinese economy struggling to address the problems of excessive investment and spiralling private and public debt, invoking an economic cold war would be monumentally dangerous for China as well as the rest of the world.

更重要的是，由於全球經濟增長乏力、中國經濟面臨投資過度和公私債務不斷上升的難題，在這種形勢下爆發一場經濟冷戰對中國和世界其他地區來說都極其危險。

The US defence department has weighed these risks and found them untroubling.

美國國防部曾權衡過這些風險，認爲不值得擔憂。

In a 2012 report , it concluded that using US Treasuries as a coercive tool would have limited impact and would do more harm to China than the US.

其在2012年的一份報告中得出結論：利用美國國債作爲脅迫工具只會產生有限的作用，並且中國會比美國受到更大的損害。

Given the size of this market of nearly $14tn, and the pool of global savings available to provide alternative sources of finance for the US budget deficit, this has some plausibility.

鑑於美國國債市場的規模接近14萬億美元，加上全球儲蓄池可以爲美國預算赤字提供替代的資金來源，這個結論似乎有些道理。

Yet in an astonishingly low-interest rate world, where central banks have been systematically rigging bond markets, there is a bond bubble.

不過，在當前這個利率極低、各國央行一直在系統性地操縱債券市場的時期，債券泡沫已經形成。

Current bond prices are thus unusually vulnerable.

因此目前債券價格極易波動。

And, after Mr Trump’s victory, the US and global bond markets have become an even more dangerous place.

在特朗普贏得大選之後，美國和全球債券市場變得更加危險了。

The president-elect is promising fiscal expansion — a combination of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and defence spending, pointing to larger budget deficits and higher interest rates.

這位當選總統正承諾要實施財政擴張——將減稅與增加基建和防務支出相結合，結果將導致預算赤字擴大和利息升高。

Given Mr Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve, the future of central bank independence in the US is in question.

鑑於特朗普對美聯儲(Fed)的抨擊，美國央行未來能否保持獨立性被劃上了問號。

So markets will inevitably demand compensation for the increased inflation risk, as well as for the higher geopolitical risks inherent in Mr Trump’s undermining rhetoric on Nato and the US security guarantees for Japan and South Korea.

因此，面對通脹風險上升以及地緣政治風險升高——特朗普發表過削弱北約(Nato)以及美國爲日韓提供的安全保障的言論——市場將不可避免地要求得到補償。

That means much higher bond yields.

這意味着債券收益率會顯著上升。

The great bond bull market that has endured since the early 1980s is now surely over.

自上世紀80年代初延續至今的債券大牛市現在無疑走到了尾聲。

Of course, campaign rhetoric is one thing, presidential office another.

當然，競選言論是一回事，入主白宮之後的作爲是另一回事。

It is in the US interest that this master of the deal should orchestrate a suitably fudged trade deal with China.

這位交易大師應該促成一項適當含混的美中貿易協議，這是符合美國利益的做法。

The snag is that the hard-headed Chinese know a thing or two about dealmaking.

問題是精明的中國人通曉交易之道。

As so often, the most likely outcome is muddle-through.

就像多數時候一樣，可能性最大的結果是勉強應付過去(muddle-through)。

Yet the risks remain.

但風險猶在。

And a trade war would probably strengthen the arms of hardliners in Beijing who oppose the capital market liberalisation that many in the west would like to see.

而一場貿易戰很可能助長中國政府中強硬派的聲勢，對於西方許多人樂於看到的資本市場自由化，這些強硬派是反對的。

The irony is that China’s currency manipulations have latterly been addressed at holding up the renminbi in the face of heavy capital outflows rather than weakening it.

說來諷刺，面對嚴重資本外流，中國近來的匯率操縱是爲了支撐人民幣，而不是讓人民幣貶值。

And the devaluation of the euro against the dollar has been far greater than that of the renminbi.

而歐元對美元的貶值幅度更甚於人民幣。

But if the need is for a scapegoat, the Chinese undoubtedly fit the bill.

但是，如果需要替罪羊的話，中國人無疑是符合要求的。