亞洲對衝基金新發數量創新低並非壞事

Hedge funds often launch when markets are high, like butterflies hatching on a warm day. But despite buoyant stocks, Asia has produced the smallest number of new openings in the year to date for 17 years, according to data from Eurekahedge.

對衝基金經常在市場處於高位時上市，就像蝴蝶在溫暖的日子裏孵化一樣。儘管股市上漲，但Eurekahedge的數據顯示，亞洲今年新發行的對衝基金數量創下17年來的新低。

It is not for want of investors: asset inflows to established funds were stronger than at any time since 2013. A different kind of risk aversion appears to be at play: the fear that startups will not match returns from old stagers.

這並非因爲缺少投資者：自2013年以來，現有基金的資產流入比以往任何時候都更加強勁。一種不同的風險規避心理似乎正在發揮作用：人們擔心初創基金的投資回報比不上老牌基金。

Chinese funds returned 22 per cent this year to date, according to an index compiled by Eurekahedge. That was five times equivalent US returns. A rally in Chinese technology stocks was an important reason for this — MSCI’s China Technology benchmark has returned 80 per cent since January. A weaker dollar also tends to boost emerging market assets.

Eurekahedge編制的一個指數顯示，今年迄今中國基金的投資回報率爲22%，這是美國基金回報率的五倍。中國科技股的漲勢是其中一個重要原因——自今年1月以來，MSCI中國科技股指數的回報率已達到80%。美元走弱也提振了新興市場的資產。

Three quarters of funds in Asia manage less than $100m. This little league suffers as investors have become demanding in allocating funds. They want a performance track record, but increasingly see large funds as complacent and expensive. Globally, the mid tier, with assets of $100m-$500m, has benefitted most. Net inflows amounted to $26.4bn. A higher ratio to start-of-year assets than for any other category — except sub-$20m funds.

亞洲有四分之三的基金規模不到1億美元。隨着投資者在資金分配上的要求變高，這種小規模帶來不利。投資者想要一個業績記錄，但日益認爲大基金自滿、昂貴。全球而言，規模爲1億美元至5億美元之間的中間層基金受益最大。資本淨流入達264億美元。與年初資產之比高於其他任何類別——規模小於2000萬美元的基金除外。

Investors tend to chase returns. They risk coming late to the party. Distressed debt strategies are one of the most successful strategies so far this year. But Lai Xiaomin, CEO of Huarang Asset Management, set up in 1999 to deal with bad debt of China’s commercial banks, has said the market is in a bubble.

投資者傾向於追逐回報。他們的風險在於加入派對已經太遲。不良債務策略是今年迄今最成功的策略之一。但1999年成立的處理中國商業銀行壞賬的中國華融資產管理公司的CEO賴小民表示，該市場正處於一個泡沫之中。

As Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index hits new post-financial crisis highs, it is probably a good thing that new entrants can only launch selectively. If the Asian hedge fund sector is overcoming a tendency for cyclicality — at least as defined by the number of fund launches — it is growing up.

隨着香港恆生指數(Hang Seng index)觸及自全球金融危機以來的最高點，新基金只能有選擇地推出很可能是件好事。如果說亞洲對衝基金行業正在克服週期性的傾向（至少按基金髮行數量來界定是如此），那就說明該行業在成長。