原創內容投資“難封頂”

When the first season of House of Cards made its debut on Netflix in February 2013, pundits wondered whether the video streaming service could really afford the $100m political drama. At the time, Netflix had 33.3m streaming subscribers, many of whom quickly became glued to the tale of Washington DC scheming and intrigue.

2013年2月，當《紙牌屋》(House of Cards)第一季在Netflix上映時，評論人士們還懷疑這家視頻流媒體服務商是否真能承擔得起這部耗資1億美元的政治劇。當時，Netflix擁有3330萬流媒體訂閱用戶，其中許多人很快迷上了這部講述華盛頓特區陰謀詭計的電視劇。

Five years ago, original commissioning was a novelty for what was only a few years earlier known primarily as a DVD-by-mail business. Then, Netflix was heavily dependent on content distribution deals with traditional media groups including Walt Disney and Mad Men-maker AMC for the vast majority of its online library.

5年前，對於這家幾年前還以在線租賃DVD業務爲主的公司來說，委託製作原創內容還是個新鮮事物。當時，Netflix的在線影庫嚴重依賴與華特迪士尼公司(Walt Disney)和《廣告狂人》(Mad Men)製作商AMC等傳統媒體集團簽訂的內容分發協議。

Fast-forward to early 2018 and Netflix can afford to write off $39m without Wall Street even blinking. The $39m non-cash charge incurred in the fourth quarter of 2017 was related to programming, including two episodes of House of Cards that Netflix commissioned but will never air due to the sexual harassment scandal that erupted around the show’s leading man, Kevin Spacey.

快進到2018年初，Netflix已經可以承受得起3900萬美元的核銷，而華爾街對此眼睛都不眨一下。這筆發生在2017年第四季度的3900萬美元非現金費用與節目製作有關，其中包括Netflix委託製作的兩季《紙牌屋》——由於主角凱文?史派西(Kevin Spacey)的性騷擾醜聞，它們將永遠不會播出。

That charge was reported alongside another forecast-busting set of results on Monday that sent Netflix’s market capitalisation soaring above $100bn for the first time, pushing shares up 10 per cent in early trading yesterday. Annual revenues jumped 32 per cent year on year to $11.7bn in 2017, while net income trebled to $559m, thanks to hit shows including Stranger Things .

隨同這筆開支一起發佈的還有Netflix又一組超預期的業績。這導致次日該公司早盤股價上漲10%，公司市值首次突破1000億美元。2017年，Netflix全年營收同比增長32%，至117億美元，而淨收入則增長兩倍，至5.59億美元。這要歸功於包括《怪奇物語》(Stranger Things)在內的一系列熱播劇。

Yet as investors cheered Netflix’s accelerating growth to reach 117.6m subscribers globally, the group warned that maintaining momentum in original content would come at an upfront cost that makes that initial $100m outlay look like a rounding error.

然而，在投資者爲Netflix增長加速、在全球擁有1.176億用戶歡呼之際，該公司卻警告說，保持原創內容增長勢頭將會產生極高的前期成本。相比之下，最初的1億美元支出看起來像是個零頭。

Netflix’s liabilities from content prepayment and debt have increased four-fold in the past five years. The combination of its long-term debt and streaming content obligations has swelled from $6.1bn at the end of 2012 to $24.2bn at the end of last year.

Netflix在內容預付和債務方面的負債在過去5年裏增長了3倍。長期債務和流媒體內容債務從2012年底的61億美元增加到去年年底的242億美元。

Of that total, $17.7bn is streaming content obligations — what it pays for the acquisition, licensing and production of television shows and movies, sometimes years in advance of broadcasting a show. The other $6.5bn is debt — and Netflix said on Monday that it planned to tap the bond markets again soon.

其中177億美元是流媒體內容債務——即在收購、許可和製作電視節目和電影方面付出的成本，儘管有時這些節目得幾年之後纔會播放。還有65億美元是債務——而Netflix日前表示，它計劃很快再次發行債券。

Analysts at Jefferies said in a note to clients that expenses such as marketing spending and programming cost were “higher relative to our expectations”.

傑富瑞(Jefferies)的分析師在一份客戶報告中指出，Netflix營銷支出和節目製作成本等開支“高於我們的預期”。

To justify that $24bn of liabilities, chief executive Reed Hastings is asking investors to bet on Netflix’s success in producing hit shows as it races to fill the programming gap left by the likes of Disney turning from partner to competitor in the streaming market.

爲了證明這242億美元的負債是合理的，Netflix首席執行官裏德?黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)請求投資者相信Netflix能夠成功製作熱播劇——它力爭填補在迪士尼等公司從流媒體市場合作夥伴轉爲競爭對手後所留下的節目製作空缺。

“We’ve had that track record in the last couple of years at greater and greater scale,” Mr Hastings said in Monday’s quarterly analyst interview. “We are continuing to take it up a notch.”

黑斯廷斯1月22日在接受季度分析師採訪時表示：“過去幾年我們的業績越來越好。我們會更上一層樓。”

Netflix executives touted the upcoming launches of Altered Carbon, a science-fiction show, and Everything Sucks, a coming-of-age comedy-drama set in 1990s Oregon, as examples of shows that would continue to attract new subscribers in 2018.

Netflix的高管力推即將發佈的科幻劇《副本》(Altered Carbon)，以及以上世紀90年代俄勒岡州爲背景的成長喜劇片《諸事皆衰》(Everything Sucks)，以此證明公司有能力在2018年繼續吸引新用戶。

The company also plans to commission more programming in languages other than English, from just a handful of shows last year to more than 30 international “originals” in 2018. Alongside that are dozens more full-length movies, after the Will Smith blockbuster Bright proved a hit last month.

該公司還計劃委託製作更多的非英語節目。雖然去年僅有少數非英語節目，但在2018年將會有30多個國際“原創節目”。此外，繼12月威爾?史密斯(Will Smith)主演的大片《光靈》(Bright)大獲成功之後，Netflix還會推出幾十部全長電影。

In total, Netflix plans to invest as much as $8bn in new content this year — and Mr Hastings warned that the budget would continue to grow. “It will definitely of course be higher in 2019 and 2020,” he said of content costs. “Don’t think of $8bn as some new plateau.”

Netflix計劃今年在新內容上總共投資80億美元，而黑斯廷斯警告稱，預算將會繼續增長。他在談到內容成本時表示：“2019年和2020年肯定會更高。不要以爲80億美元已經到頂了。”

Competition too is increasing. Disney plans to launch new subscription streaming services this year and Hulu, the US internet video service that is jointly owned by Disney, Fox and Comcast, grew to 17m subscribers last year.

競爭也在加劇。迪士尼計劃今年推出新的訂閱流媒體服務，而迪士尼、福克斯(Fox)和康卡斯特(Comcast)共同擁有的美國互聯網視頻服務商Hulu去年用戶增長至1700萬。

Anticipation of that competition from traditional media companies was what drove Netflix to invest in its own TV shows in the first place, according to content chief Ted Sarandos. Mr Sarandos added that many Netflix shows that are licensed from or made by Disney are locked into long-term deals. “As long as they keep making those shows, they continue on Netflix,” he said.

Netflix內容總監泰德?薩蘭多斯(Ted Sarandos)表示，促使公司投資製作原創電視節目的最主要原因正是對來自傳統媒體公司的競爭的預期。薩蘭多斯補充說，Netflix很多獲得迪士尼授權或者由其製作的節目都被鎖定在長期交易中。他表示：“只要他們繼續製作這些節目，他們就會繼續在Netflix播出。”

If Mr Hastings was concerned about the impact of Disney’s $66bn plan to buy 21st Century Fox’s entertainment businesses, he did a good job of hiding it when he was quizzed on Monday.

在被問及迪士尼以660億美元收購21世紀福克斯公司(21st Century Fox)旗下娛樂業務計劃的影響時，黑斯廷斯即使心存憂慮，他也掩飾得很好。

“These kind of big US media company mergers are pretty peripheral to us,” he said. “I was as surprised as anyone else that Fox was willing to sell.”

他說：“此類大型美國媒體公司兼併案對我們來說並不重要。我和其他人一樣，對福克斯願意出售感到意外。”

Yet even though Rupert Murdoch has suggested that the competitive threat from Netflix contributed to his decision to sell Fox to Disney, Mr Hastings said he was looking forward to the new streaming services that would follow the deal — as a viewer, at least.

然而，儘管魯珀特?默多克(Rupert Murdoch)表示，正是來自Netflix的競爭威脅促使他做出了將福克斯出售給迪士尼的決定，但是黑斯廷斯表示，自己十分期待這項交易之後的新流媒體服務——至少作爲一名旁觀者如此。

“Disney, with its strength of brand and unique content, will have some real success,” the Netflix chief said. “I know I’ll be a subscriber of it for my own personal watching.”

黑斯廷斯說：“迪士尼將會憑藉其品牌實力和獨一無二的內容大獲成功。我知道，就我個人觀看來說，我會成爲它的用戶。”