11月中國外匯儲備再度縮水 Decline in China forex reserves renews jitters

China’s foreign exchange reserves posted their third-largest monthly decline on record last month, central bank data showed yesterday, renewing worries about capital outflows after reserves had appeared to stabilise.

昨日發佈的央行數據顯示，中國外匯儲備上月出現有記錄以來第三大單月降幅。這重燃了人們對於中國遭遇資本外流的擔憂，此前中國外匯儲備似乎企穩。

Forex reserves fell $87bn in November, near the record $94bn decline suffered in August — the same month that the central bank surprised global markets by allowing the renminbi to depreciate by 3 per cent in three days.

11月中國外匯儲備下降８７２．２３億美元，接近8月下降940億美元的紀錄——該月中國央行出乎全球市場意料地允許人民幣在三天裏貶值4.6%。

China’s reserves have fallen for nine of 11 months this year and stand at $3.43tn, as investors sell renminbi assets to protect themselves against depreciation and the central bank sells dollars from its reserves to curb renminbi weakness. Falling interest rates in China and expectations of an imminent rate rise by the US Federal Reserve have also fuelled outflows. Reserves rebounded mildly in October, suggesting outflows had diminished.

中國外匯儲備在今年前11個月中的9個月下降，目前約爲3.43萬億美元。投資者拋售人民幣資產以保護自己免受貶值影響，而央行出售外匯儲備中的美元以遏止人民幣弱勢。中國利率不斷下降，而美聯儲(Federal Reserve)預計很快將開始加息，也助燃了資本外流。中國外匯儲備曾在10月輕微反彈，似乎表明外流已趨於停止。

China’s forex reserves — the world’s largest — have long been seen as the ultimate guarantor of financial stability, since they can be used to hedge against capital flight or to bail out domestic financial institutions struggling with a rise in bad debts.

中國擁有世界上最大的外匯儲備，它一直被視爲金融穩定的最終保障，因爲外儲可以被用來對衝資本外流，或紓困艱難應對壞賬增加的國內金融機構。

The unprecedented declines have raised worries that the reserves could quickly evaporate if capital outflows continue and the central bank continues to defend the exchange rate. Most analysts believe the central bank will be forced to curtail its intervention in order to prevent further depletion of its reserves.

中國外匯儲備出現史無前例的下跌，已經引發市場擔心：如果資本外流持續下去，而央行繼續捍衛匯率，外儲可能迅速蒸發。多數分析師相信，中國央行將被迫縮減干預力度，以免外匯儲備進一步枯竭。

The People’s Bank of China has long intervened in foreign-exchange markets to hedge against excessive volatility. Since August, however, such intervention has expanded from the domestic spot market, which covers daily transactions, to include the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, as well as both onshore and offshore futures markets, traders say.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)干預外匯市場由來已久，目的是防止過度波動。不過，交易員們表示，自今年8月以來，這種干預已從國內即期市場（覆蓋日常交易）擴大至包括香港的離岸人民幣市場，以及在岸和離岸期貨市場。

Following the devaluation in mid-August, the renminbi rallied in September and October. Devaluation resumed in November, however, and the renminbi closed at its weakest level in three months at 6.4082 to the dollar yesterday. “Since October many countries around China have experienced some capital outflow, and China has had its share,” said Xie Yaxuan, an economist at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen. “The strengthening dollar is bound to cause some repositioning into dollar assets.”

繼8月中旬貶值後，人民幣在9月和10月有所上漲，但在11月再度走低，昨日人民幣匯率收跌至三個月最疲弱水平，爲1美元兌6.4082元人民幣。“中國周邊很多國家自10月份起經歷了一些資本外流，中國也未能倖免，”深圳招商證券(China Merchants Securities)經濟學家謝亞軒表示。“美元走強勢必在一定程度上引發轉投美元資產的行爲。”

Ms Xie estimates that around 40 per cent of the decline in November — about $35bn — is attributable to valuation effects related to the weakening of the euro and other currencies against the dollar in November, rather than outflows.

謝亞軒估計，11月中國外儲下降的大約40%（350億美元左右）可歸因於歐元和其他貨幣相對於美元走弱的估值影響，而不是資本外流。

Additional reporting by Ma Nan

Ma Nan補充報道