香港與內地經濟聯繫趨弱 Hong Kong and China weakening link

Hong Kong’s fortunes are believed to rise and fall with those of China. Yet the link between “Asia’s World City” and its northern engine of growth is becoming tenuous.

香港的命運被認爲與中國內地休慼相關。然而，“亞洲國際都會”(Asia’s World City)和其北方的增長引擎之間的聯繫正變得薄弱。

On Thursday, Burberry and Richemont said sales in China were better than expected. The glow did not extend to Hong Kong. Burberry’s sales there and in Macau were down a fifth; Richemont’s revenues in the southern city fell “significantly”. Hong Kong jeweller Chow Tai Fook had bad numbers, too. Worse, the bad news extends beyond luxury — a victim of China’s war against corruption. Also on Thursday Bossini, an apparel retailer, said second-half profits fell between 80 and 90 per cent. It blamed fewer mainland visitors to Hong Kong and weak local sentiment. November tourist arrivals from China fell 16 per cent on the year, the fastest pace in 12 months; retail sales were down 8 per cent for the month.

上週四，博柏利(Burberry)和歷峯(Richemont)報告中國內地銷售好於預期。這一好景象沒有延伸至香港。博柏利在香港和澳門的銷售下降五分之一；歷峯的香港營收“顯著”下降。香港珠寶商周大福(Chow Tai Fook)的業績也不好。更糟的是，壞消息還不只限於奢侈品——中國反腐敗鬥爭的受害者。同樣在上週四，服裝零售商堡獅龍(Bossini)表示，去年下半年利潤下降80%至90%。該公司將糟糕業績歸咎於內地來港遊客減少和本地情緒低迷。去年11月，內地來港遊客人數同比下降16%，這是12個月以來的最大降幅；該月零售銷售下降了8%。

Negative sentiment is likely to persist. This month’s disappearance of a seller of books about China’s Communist Party has resurrected antipathy towards the mainland. With that constituency accounting for more than three-quarters of all visitors, its alienation is significant.

負面情緒可能會持續。本月，某書店（該書店銷售關於中國共產黨的圖書）的一名員工失蹤，重燃了港人對內地的反感。鑑於內地遊客佔香港遊客總數的四分之三以上，這種反感舉足輕重。

Of course, Hong Kong’s economy is more than tourism and shopping. It has also benefited as the conduit for international services to China. Yet, even in these traditional strongholds, China may be pulling ahead. UBS said it would double its staff in China. Much of that headcount will be north of the border. Hong Kong’s economy has more dark days ahead.

當然，香港經濟不只限於旅遊和購物。這個特別行政區還是境外機構向中國提供服務的管道，它也得益於此。然而，即使是在這些傳統的香港強項上，內地也可能正在趕超。瑞銀(UBS)表示，將把在華員工增加一倍。新增人員將有很大一部分在內地。香港經濟將迎來更多黯淡日子。