英國首相不應該妄議央行工作
Many influentialinterests and opinion-formers de-test today’s ultra-low interest rates.
許多具有影響力的利益集團和輿論影響者不喜歡當今的超低利率。
They are alsoclear who is to blame: central banks.
他們還明確指出罪魁禍首是央行。
Theresa May, UKprime minister, has joined the fray, arguing that while monetary policy . . . provided the necessary emergency medicine after the financial crash, we have toacknowledge there have been some bad side effects.
英國首相特里薩.梅(Theresa May)加入了指責的陣營，她表示，儘管貨幣政策在金融危機過後……提供了必要的緊急救助，但我們不得不承認，它帶來了一些副作用。
People with assetshave got richer.
擁有資產的人變得更富了。
People withoutthem have suffered.
沒有資產的人日子更加難過。
People withmortgages have found their debts cheaper.
有抵押貸款的人發現他們的債務更便宜了。
People withsavings have found themselves poorer.
有儲蓄的人發現他們更窮了。
A change has gotto come.
必須做出改變。
So how might the governmentdeliver such change? The answer is not obvious.
那麼政府應該如何推動這種改變？答案並不明顯。
As BenBroadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England, notes, real long-terminterest rates have fallen to zero (or below) over the past quarter of acentury.
正如英國央行(BoE)副行長本.布羅德本特(Ben Broadbent)所說的，在過去25年裏，長期實際利率已降至零值（或負值）水平。
Furthermore, asthe International Monetary Fund points out, core consumer price inflation hasbeen persistently weak in high-income economies.
此外，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)指出，高收入經濟體中的核心消費者價格通脹率持續疲弱。
Mr Broadbentargues: With inflation relatively stable in all these countries, it’s hard tobelieve central banks were doing much else than . . . following a similardecline in the neutral rate of interest.
布羅德本特辯稱：由於所有這些國家通脹率相對穩定，很難相信各國央行除了跟隨中性利率下降以外……還能有其他作爲。
At first glance,then, central banks are just following real economic forces while takingaccount, as they should, of recent demand weakness caused by the financialcrisis and the excessive build-up of private debt that preceded it.
因此乍看之下，各國央行只是在順應實際的經濟力量，同時考慮了（這也是他們應該做的）金融危機帶來的近年需求疲弱以及之前的私人債務過度累積。
An indication ofthis demand weakness is the persistence of financial surpluses (excesses ofincome over spending) in the private sectors of high-income economies — notablyin Japan, Germany and the eurozone — despite ultra-low interest rates.
表明這種需求疲弱的一個跡象是，儘管利率超低，但高收入國家（尤其是在日本、德國乃至整個歐元區）私人部門持續保持財務盈餘（收入超過支出）。
This is why theBank of Japan and the European Central Bank have remained particularlyaggressive.
這就是日本央行(BoJ)和歐洲央行(ECB)依然保持特別激進的原因。
Given thisbackground — the sustained declines in real interest rates, chronically lowinflation and feeble private demand — does a credible alternative set ofpolicies exist?
在這種背景下——實際利率持續下降、通脹長期低企以及私人需求疲弱——存在可信的替代政策組合嗎？
One kind ofobjection to present policies is mainly a howl of pain: low interest ratesundermine the business models of banks and insurance companies, lower theincomes of savers, devastate the solvency of pension schemes, raise assetprices and worsen inequality.
有種針對當前政策的反對意見主要是在抱怨：低利率破壞了銀行和保險公司的商業模式，降低了儲蓄者的收入，摧毀了養老金計劃的償付能力，推升了資產價格，加劇了不平等現象。
As Mark Carney,governor of the Bank of England, noted recently, monetary policy hasdistributional consequences but it is for broader government to offset them ifthey so choose.
正如英國央行行長馬克.卡尼(Mark Carney)最近指出的那樣，貨幣政策具有分配後果，但抵消這些後果是廣義政府的責任——如果其這麼選擇。
Whether thegovernment should use fiscal resources to compensate people who hold largeamounts in saving accounts is doubtful.
值得懷疑的是，英國是否應該動用財政資源補償持有大量儲蓄的人。
These are hardlythe poorest.
這些人很難說是最窮的人。
Moreover, to theextent that low rates promote recovery, almost everybody benefits.
此外，就低利率推動了經濟復甦而言，幾乎所有人都在受益。
The distributionalconsequences of post-crisis monetary policies are also complex.
後危機時代貨幣政策的分配後果也是複雜的。
In the UK thedistribution of income seems to have become less un-equal, but the distributionof wealth more so, since the crisis.
在英國，自金融危機以來，收入分配不平等程度似乎有所下降，但財富分配不平等程度有所上升。
Lower interestrates need not worsen pension deficits; that depends on what happens to thevalue of assets held by pension funds.
利率下降不一定加劇養老金赤字；它取決於養老基金持有的資產價值表現如何。
Normally, lowerinterest rates should raise the latter.
通常來說，利率下降應該提高資產價值。
What would lowerboth real interest rates and asset prices is greater pessimism about economicprospects.
讓實際利率和資產價格全都下降的是對經濟前景更加悲觀的看法。
Central banks donot cause such pessimism but try to offset it.
各國央行並未導致此類悲觀看法，它們只是在努力抵消這種情緒。
Finally, theimpact of low rates, even negative nominal rates, on the business models offinancial intermediaries can be dealt with only by changing those models oreliminating the need for such low rates altogether.
最後，要應對低利率（甚至名義負利率）對金融中介機構商業模式的影響，只有改變那些模式，或者從根本上消除對此類低利率的需要。
A more cogent setof objections is that the policy framework or view of how monetary policy worksis misguided.
一種更能自圓其說的反對意見是，關於貨幣政策運作方式的政策框架或者觀念受到了誤導。
The heart of theframework is inflation targeting, which can indeed cause problems — notably ifthe impact of monetary policy on finance is ignored, as happened before thecrisis.
政策框架的核心是以通脹爲目標，這的確可能導致問題，尤其是如果像金融危機前那樣，忽視貨幣政策對金融的影響的話。
But it isimpossible to believe that deflation would make managing a world economycharacterised by chronically weak demand any easier.
但如果有人說，通縮將會讓長期需求低迷的世界經濟變得更容易管理，那是完全不可信的。
On the contrary,deflation could make highly negative nominal rates necessary.
相反，通縮可能促使各國央行有必要將利率降至極大的負值區間。
That would bepractically and politically difficult.
無論是從實際操作還是從政治上來說，這都是非常困難的。
Not only maintainingthe inflation target, but achieving it, is essential.
保持和實現通脹目標都是不可或缺的。
Some even arguethat low rates weaken demand by lowering spending, stalling productivity growthand stimulating private borrowing.
一些人甚至辯稱，低利率通過降低支出、阻礙生產率增長並刺激私人借貸，從而削弱了需求。
Yet there is noclear reason why low rates should lower aggregate spending since they merelyshift incomes from creditors to debtors.
然而，沒有明顯理由表明低利率會降低總體支出，因爲它們只是將收入從債權人轉移到債務人那裏。
Low rates alsomake borrowing cheaper.
低利率也讓借款更加便宜。
That shouldstimulate investment and so increase productivity growth.
這應該刺激投資，從而加快生產率增長。
Low rates areindeed intended to make debt more bearable and encourage borrowing andspending.
低利率的確意在讓人們更容易忍受債務，並鼓勵借款和支出。
If governmentsdislike this mechanism, they need to replace private with public borrowing,ideally in support of investment in infrastructure.
如果政府不喜歡這種機制，它們需要用公共借款取代私人借款，最好是支持基礎設施投資。
In addition, theyneed structural reforms, notably in taxation, to encourage private investmentand discourage saving.
此外，它們需要結構性改革（尤其是在稅收領域）以鼓勵私人投資並抑制儲蓄。
Among bighigh-income countries, Germany and Japan most need such structural reforms.
在大型高收入國家當中，德國和日本最需要此類結構性改革。
What Mrs May hasdone so far is cause confusion.
梅迄今所做的只是引起困惑。
It is a mistakefor a head of government to criticise a central bank in its efforts to achievethe target the government itself has set.
一個政府首腦抨擊央行努力實現政府自己制定的目標是錯誤的。
Moreover, there isno good reason to believe the BoE is going about its mandate in the wrong way.
此外，沒有好的理由認爲，英國央行在以錯誤的方式履行其職責。
If, however, thegovernment wants to change that mandate, then this requires careful thought.
然而，如果英國政府想要改變這種職責，那是需要認真考慮的。
All changes createbig risks.
所有的改變都會帶來巨大的風險。
Throw-away linesare simply the wrong way to start this, particularly given Brexit.
脫口而出的風涼話是啓動這一進程的錯誤方式，尤其是考慮到英國退歐的大背景。
Finally, if thegovernment wants to shield the losers from monetary policy, it must weigh otherclaims on its scarce resources.
最後，如果英國政府想要保護輸家免受貨幣政策的影響，那就必須權衡其他方面對稀缺資源的要求。
If, however, itwants to lighten the load on monetary policy, let us cry Hallelujah.
然而，如果英國政府希望減輕貨幣政策的負擔，那就讓我們歡呼吧。
It is past timethat governments examined the combination of fiscal policy, debt restructuringand structural reforms that could help central banks deliver the vigorouseconomic growth the world economy still needs.
各國政府早就應該考慮財政政策、債務重組和結構性改革這些組合措施，它們有望幫助央行兌現世界經濟仍然需要的強勁增長。
