朝鮮舉行紀念活動展示對現任領導人效忠

North Korea sought to project loyalty to its ruling family at a rally Tuesday to mark the second anniversary of the death of Kim Jong Il after the recent execution of a senior regime figure for allegedly planning a coup.

朝鮮在近期以策劃政變爲由處決一名政府高官之後，試圖通過週二舉行的紀念金正日(Kim Jong Il)逝世兩週年活動來展現對金氏政權的效忠。

In Seoul, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told military commanders that North Korea might stage attacks against the South early next year to solidify support for current dictator Kim Jong Un.

韓國國防部長金寬鎮(Kim Kwan-jin)在首爾對軍方指揮官表示，朝鮮可能在明年初對韓國發起攻擊，以鞏固對現任領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的忠誠。

The unprecedented public downfall last week of Jang Song Thaek, a longtime senior North Korean official and uncle of Mr. Kim, has raised concerns of instability and volatile behavior from Pyongyang. South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned on Monday of 'reckless provocations' by North Korea.

上週朝鮮以前所未有的公開方式處決了長期位居要職、金正恩的姑父張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)，令人對朝鮮政局不穩以及可能採取異常行動而感到擔心。韓國總統 槿惠(Park Geun-hye)週一對朝鮮可能發動不計後果的挑 行爲發出警告。

Seoul's defense ministry has repeatedly said it hasn't seen any unusual military movements in the North following the dramatic arrest and execution of Mr. Jang. But on Tuesday, Defense Minister Mr. Kim told military commanders that provocations are most likely between late January and early March next year after the North has made necessary preparations, according to a spokesman.

韓國國防部多次表示，在張成澤被戲劇化逮捕並處決之後，沒有發現朝鮮有任何不尋常的軍事調動。但發言人稱，週二國防部長金寬鎮對軍方指揮官表示，朝鮮在進行必要的準備之後，很可能在明年1月底至3月初期間採取挑 行動。

Ms. Park and Mr. Kim have called for extra vigilance and readiness to respond to provocations, including along the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea. North Korea staged two attacks against the South in the region in 2010 that killed 50 people.

槿惠和金寬鎮指示軍警加強警戒，準備應對挑 行爲，其中包括有爭議的黃海海域邊界地區。朝鮮曾在2010年對該地區發起兩次攻擊，造成50人死亡。

Analysts are divided on whether the purge of Mr. Jang signals wider instability in the regime. But some note that the accusation made by North Korea that Mr. Jang had been building a plot to overthrow the dictator could backfire by undermining confidence in the leadership.

對於清洗張成澤是否是朝鮮政權更加不穩的跡象，分析人士意見分歧。不過一些人指出，朝鮮指控張成澤密謀推翻金正恩，恰恰削弱了對金氏政權的信心。

North Koreans are fed a constant flow of propaganda about universal devotion to the ruling Kim family. The suggestion of a long-brewing challenge to that at a senior level, even if not true, could foster instability, analysts say.

朝鮮人一直被宣傳機構灌輸要永遠效忠金氏家族。分析人士認爲，張成澤事件意味着在高層長期醞釀挑戰，即使並非如此，也將加劇政局動盪。

'In the short-term, the political system unified under a single leader reminiscent of Kim Jong Il's rule appears to be taking shape, but there is greater structural insecurity in wider society,' said Philo Kim, a professor at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.

首爾大學(Seoul National University)和平與統一研究所(Institute for Peace and Unification Studies)教授Philo Kim稱，短期而言，朝鮮似乎形成了單一領導人掌權的政治體制，令人回想起金正日在位時的情形，但是在更廣泛的社會中存在更大的結構性不安全因素。

At a rally of hundreds of military and political leaders at an indoor auditorium in Pyongyang, senior figures delivered eulogies to the elder Mr. Kim and issued calls to rally behind his son. Kim Yong Nam, North Korea's ceremonial head of state, called for the current leader to be held 'as the unitary center of unity.'

在數千名軍政高官參加在平壤一個大禮堂舉行的紀念活動中，高級官員對金正日致悼詞，並宣誓效忠他的兒子。朝鮮最高人民會議常任委員長金永南(Kim Yong Nam)號召以金正恩爲“惟一中心”。

Analysts studied the footage, shown on North Korean state television, for indications of other changes in the regime hierarchy following the purge of Mr. Jang. The only notable figure missing was Kim Jong Un's aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, although she is believed to have retained a senior position in the regime after she was included in a list of top officials for a state event over the weekend.

分析人士研究了朝鮮國家電視臺播放的視頻，以尋找清洗張成澤之後朝鮮政壇是否有其他變化的跡象。惟一明顯的是，金正恩的姑姑金敬姬(Kim Kyong Hui)沒有露面，不過她在週末列入一位去世高官的治喪委員會委員名單中，據信地位得以保留。

Senior leaders also visited the mausoleum where Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather, lie in state. Mr. Kim was accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol Ju, who hadn't been seen in public for several weeks and was the subject of speculation about her position in the regime.

高官們還參拜了安放前兩代領導人金日成(Kim Il Sung)和金正日遺體的錦繡山太陽宮；金日成是金正恩的爺爺。金正恩攜妻子李雪主(Ri Sol Ju)到太陽宮拜謁，李雪主此前數週沒有公開現身，引發了她在政權中地位的猜測。