揭開神祕面紗 中國"藍水海軍"呼之欲出

As John Kerry, US secretary of state, arrives in Asia today to reinforce the US “pivot”, the Chinese navy has been making waves by sailing new routes that illustrate its growing presence and confidence in the Pacific.

在美國國務卿約翰•克里(John Kerry)今日抵達亞洲以強化美國“重返亞洲”戰略之際，中國海軍則在近期令其軍艦編隊接連開闢新的航線，突顯其在太平洋的地位和信心不斷增長。

Chinese warships earlier this month passed through the Sunda Strait – between the Indonesian islands of Java and Sumatra – for the first time en route to the Indian Ocean where they held exercises. They then returned via the Lombok Strait near Bali and through the Makassar Strait off Borneo.

本月早些時候，中國軍艦首次通過印尼爪哇島與蘇門答臘之間的巽他海峽(Sunda Strait)，前往印度洋進行演練。返程途中，中國海軍編隊先後通過巴厘島附近的龍目海峽(Lombok Strait)和婆羅洲沿岸的望加錫海峽(Makassar Strait)。

China is trying to tilt the balance of power in the Pacific where the US has been dominant for decades by developing a “blue water” navy that can operate further from its shores. Rory Medcalf, an Asia security expert at the Lowy Institute, said the latest move was an example of China flexing its growing muscles.

中國正試圖建設一支能夠在遠海執行任務的“藍水”海軍，從而在美國佔據霸主地位幾十年的太平洋上改變力量平衡。澳大利亞羅維國際政策學院(Lowy Institute)的亞洲安全事務專家羅裏•梅德卡夫(Rory Medcalf)表示，最新動作是中國“秀肌肉”的一個例子。

“They are sending a signal that they have every right to use international waterways,” says Mr Medcalf. “In another five years, an active Chinese military presence beyond the South China Sea and East China Sea will be quite normal.”

“他們發出的信號是，他們有利用國際水道的充分權利，”梅德卡夫表示。“再過5年後，中國在南中國海和東中國海以外保持活躍軍事影響將是相當正常的。”

China’s growing naval presence in the Pacific coupled with territorial disputes with Japan and southeast Asian nations are the reason US allies want Washington to become more engaged in Asia. Mr Kerry is likely to hear that message a lot as he travels from Seoul to Beijing and Jakarta in coming days ahead of an even more important visit by President Barack Obama to Asia in April.

中國在太平洋不斷擴大海軍力量，同時與日本和東南亞國家存在領土爭端，正是美國的盟國希望華盛頓更多介入亞洲事務的原因。克里在未來幾天訪問首爾、北京和雅加達期間，將多次聽到這層意思。4月份還有一次更重要的訪問——美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)將親自出訪亞洲。

The Chinese navy has already signalled its intention to operate regularly beyond the so-called “first island chain”, which separates the South China, East China and Yellow seas from the Pacific Ocean. Last summer, when its warships sailed through the Soya Strait between Japan and Russia for the first time, state media said China had “fulfilled its long-held dream of breaking through the ‘first island chain blockade’.”

中國海軍已經發出信號稱，它有意常態化地在分隔南海、東海和黃海與太平洋的所謂“第一島鏈”以外執行任務。去年夏天，在中國軍艦編隊首次通過日俄之間的宗谷海峽(Soya Strait)之後，官方媒體稱，中國實現了突破“第一島鏈封鎖”的長期夢想。

Timothy Keating, a retired admiral who commanded US forces in the Pacific, describes the passage through the Indonesian straits as not “a big deal”, adding that it was a natural step for a country trying to develop a blue water navy.

曾統帥太平洋美軍的退休海軍上將蒂莫西•基廷(Timothy Keating)形容中國軍艦通過印尼海峽之舉“不是什麼大不了的事”，並稱這是試圖打造一支藍水海軍的國家很自然的一步。

The Chinese navy has already taken several steps towards this goal. In 2012 and 2013, it spent months participating in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Somalia. And, last October, its ships made their first voyage through the Strait of Magellan at the southern tip of South America.

中國海軍已朝着藍水海軍的目標邁進了好幾步。2012年和2013年，中國海軍花費數月時間在索馬里沿岸的亞丁灣參與打擊海盜的行動。去年10月，中國軍艦編隊還首次通過南美洲最南端的麥哲倫海峽(Strait of Magellan)。

The US last year said Chinese ships had started operating inside the US exclusive economic zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from US territory. And the top Communist party official in Liaoning province recently revealed that China was building its first indigenous aircraft carrier at the port of Dalian – to follow the Liaoning, which it bought from Ukraine.

美國去年表示，中國軍艦已開始在距離美國領土200海里範圍內的美國專屬經濟區活動。而遼寧省委書記最近透露，中國正在大連港建造第一艘國產航空母艦。此前中國從烏克蘭購買了首艘航空母艦，並將其命名爲“遼寧號”。

In another example of the Chinese military’s growing confidence – but one that is welcome in the US – its navy will this summer participate in a big international exercise in Hawaii called “Rim of the Pacific”. The Chinese army is also sending a small contingent of soldiers to take part this month in “Cobra Gold”, a major military exercise in the Asia-Pacific region that is being held in Thailand.

中國軍隊信心不斷增強——但得到美國歡迎——的另一個例子是，中國海軍將參加今年夏天在夏威夷舉行的“環太平洋-2014”聯合軍演。中國陸軍還派出一個分隊參加本月在泰國舉行的“金色眼鏡蛇”演習，這是亞太地區的一項大規模軍演。

Gary Li, a senior analyst at IHS Maritime, says the passage through the Indonesian straits was also significant in that two destroyers were accompanied by one of China’s new amphibious vessels that can carry vehicles, helicopters and troops, and which are increasingly operating in the South China Sea and further afield. “This is where the backbone will be in future for power projection,” says Mr Li.

IHS Maritime高級分析師加里•李(Gary Li)表示，中國軍艦通過印尼海峽另一個重大意義表現在，除了兩艘驅逐艦之外，編隊還包括一艘可搭載車輛、直升機和士兵的新型兩棲船塢登陸艦，這種登陸艦正越來越頻繁地出現在南海和更遙遠的海域。“這將是未來力量投射的骨幹”，加里•李表示。

The anxiety of China’s neighbours has been amplified by its creation of an “air defence identification zone” over the East China Sea that covers the Senkaku Islands, which are controlled by Japan but claimed by China which calls them the Diaoyu.

中國在東海劃設防空識別區之舉加劇了鄰國的焦慮，這個防空識別區覆蓋日本實際管轄、但中國聲稱擁有主權的尖閣諸島(Senkaku Islands)——中國稱其爲釣魚島及其附屬島嶼。

Experts say Mr Kerry’s trip is important, partly because of the perception that he has paid less attention to Asia than Hillary Clinton, his predecessor. The Philippines has urged the US to offer more support for its dispute with China – some of which came last week – while Japan was disappointed that the US did not call on Beijing to rescind its air defence zone.

專家們表示，克里此行相當重要，部分原因是外界認爲與前任希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)相比，他對亞洲的關注較少。菲律賓敦促美國在其與中國的主權糾紛中給予更多支持——美國在上週提供了一些支持，而日本對美國未能呼籲北京撤銷防空識別區感到失望。

Jim Shinn, a former top Asia official at the Pentagon, says the initial US response was so accommodating that “the Communist party’s national security leading group [chaired by President Xi Jinping] has probably already planned the next uptick”.

曾擔任美國國防部亞洲事務最高官員的吉姆•希恩(Jim Shinn)表示，美國最初的反應是如此包容，以至於“共產黨的國家安全領導小組（由中國國家主席習近平執掌）很可能已經在策劃下一個升級行動”。

Mr Medcalf says the “jury is still out” on the pivot and that the US has “to prove that the rebalance is real and enduring”.

梅德卡夫表示，美國重返亞洲“尚無定論”，美國必須“證明這個重新平衡是真實、持久的”。