香港政改投票前民意分歧嚴重

Five months after Hong Kong’s Occupy protesters were cleared from the streets, the battle for free and fair elections is heating up again ahead of a crucial vote in the Chinese territory’s legislature next month.

距香港清理街頭“佔中”(Occupy)抗議者已過去了五個月。就在香港立法會於下月進行一次至關重要的投票之前，香港民衆爭取自由和公平選舉的鬥爭再次升溫。

The Hong Kong government needs to win the support of only four opposition, pro-democracy legislators to pass a Beijing-approved proposal to bring in a restricted form of universal suffrage that critics deride as a sham.

香港政府只需贏得四位來自反對派陣營、泛民主議員的支持，就能通過北京方面認可的一個普選提案。該提案引入了一種有限的普選方式，批評人士嘲諷這種普選方式名不副實。

“We don’t have an awful lot of time left and I can’t tell what’s going to happen,” says Jasper Tsang, the president of the legislative council, who has vowed to break with convention by voting, in support of the government. “It looks most likely that both sides will remain intransigent and we won’t be able to make it.”

香港立法會主席曾鈺成(Jasper Tsang)表示：“我們並沒有大把的時間可以揮霍，我也無法判斷會發生什麼。最可能的情況是，雙方將依然固執己見，導致我們無法達成一致。”

The student-led Occupy movement shut parts of one of Asia’s biggest financial centres for three months last year as protesters called for full democracy and the removal of CY Leung, Hong Kong’s controversial chief executive.

去年，由學生主導的“佔中運動”曾導致香港這個亞洲最大金融中心的部分路段關閉三月之久。當時，抗議者呼籲實現全面民主，並呼籲香港爭議特首樑振英(CY Leung)下臺。

The upcoming vote is the latest battle in a struggle between democracy campaigners and the government of the former British colony, backed by Beijing and Hong Kong’s influential tycoons.

即將到來的投票，是民運陣營與香港政府間的最新一次鬥爭。香港政府得到了北京中央政府和香港有影響力的富豪們的支持。

Mr Leung has launched a last-ditch campaign to win support for the plan to let Hong Kong’s 5m eligible voters directly elect their next leader for the first time in 2017.

樑振英已發動最後的宣傳攻勢，以爭取人們對上述普選計劃的支持。該計劃打算在2017年，讓香港500萬合法選民首次直接選舉下任領導人。

But opposition lawmakers, known as the pan-democrats, say they will vote against the proposal because of the requirement for candidates to be pre-approved by a largely pro-Beijing nominating committee.

然而，被稱爲泛民主派的反對派立法會議員表示，他們將投票反對這一提案，原因是該方案要求候選人經提名委員會預先批准，而該委員會總體上是支持北京的。

If the bill is rejected, the chief executive will continue to be chosen by the 1,200-member committee, which is composed of representatives of industrial and social groups.

如果這一提案被否決，香港特首將繼續由提名委員會選舉產生。提名委員會擁有1200名成員，由業界團體和社會團體的代表組成。

“There should be no unreasonable restrictions on nominations,” says Emily Lau, who chairs the Democratic party. “The system for elections must give real choice.”

香港民主黨(Democratic)主席劉慧卿(Emily Lau)表示：“特首提名人不應存在不合理的限制。選舉體制必須向選民提供真正的選擇。”

Mr Leung has publicly called on the pan-democrats to vote in support of a “historic outcome” and some opposition lawmakers have said they would consider backing the government if it can secure further concessions from Beijing.

此前，樑振英曾公開呼籲泛民主人士投票支持香港的“歷史性成果”。部分反對派立法會議員已表示，如果這麼做可以確保中國政府作出進一步讓步，他們會考慮支持政府。

Lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the constitutional reform package in mid-June, according to Mr Tsang, and the government needs to win a two-thirds majority in the 70-seat council to pass the bill.

曾鈺成表示，立法會議員定於在6月中旬就這一選舉改革方案投票。在立法會的70個席位中，香港政府需贏得佔三分之二的多數席位，才能通過這一提案。

Alan Leong, leader of the pro-democracy Civic party, says that without any significant concessions from Beijing, which must sign off on the Hong Kong administration’s proposals, he “cannot see any of the 27 pan-democrats going over to the other side”.

泛民主派公民黨(Civic)領袖樑家傑(Alan Leong)表示，如果北京方面不做出任何重大讓步，他認爲“27名泛民主議員都不會改變立場”。香港政府的政改提案最終必須得到北京方面的批准。

Opinion polls by a group of Hong Kong universities show deep divisions over the 2017 election reforms with about 40 per cent of people in favour and the same proportion against.

香港多所大學開展的民調顯示，圍繞2017年選舉改革，香港社會已出現深層分歧，大約40%的被調查者支持該方案，而反對該方案的被調查者也佔同樣比例。

That worries lawmakers of all colours, who fear that with tensions rising, large demonstrations planned around the vote could spark confrontations with the police and government supporters.

這種狀況令來自各陣營的立法會議員感到擔憂。他們擔心隨着局面日趨緊張，選舉前後的大型遊行示威活動或將引發反對派與警方及政府支持者間的對峙。

A rump of about 100 of the Occupy activists continue to live in several dozen tents on the pavement in front of the legislative council. Mr Tsang, a member of the main pro-Beijing party, says “there has been a continuous stepping up of activities within this occupied area”.

在香港立法會門前，大約還有100位“佔中”活躍分子繼續生活在人行道上的幾十個帳篷中。曾鈺成稱“在這一被佔領地段，抗議活動一直在持續升溫。”他來自一個主體上親北京的政黨。

“When it comes to voting on the controversial political reform package, emotions will run high and so the situation can easily get out of hand,” he warns.

他警告說：“每次談到這一有爭議的政治改革方案的投票問題，人們的情緒就會高漲。因此，局面可能很容易失控。”

Ms Lau says that while she hopes the protests will be peaceful, “society is split and some are bitter, so this will be a big test for the new police commissioner”.

劉慧卿表示，雖然她希望抗議能夠和平進行，但是“社會是多樣化的，有的人更情緒化一些。因此，這對新任警務處處長是個巨大的考驗。”

But Simon Siu, who regularly camps out in one of the tents, is more concerned about the Occupy movement falling apart than the upcoming protests spiralling out of control.

不過，一直在帳篷中露營的Simon Siu則更擔心佔中運動的分裂，而不是即將到來的抗議活動會失控。

“There was a large movement but nothing changed so people are tired of protesting,” says Mr Siu, a 37-year-old electronic goods salesman who is wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with the words “Don’t make me shoot you” over an image of a camera. “We want people to come back but we’re also tired and we’re trying to keep busy to keep our spirits up.”

他說：“曾經轟轟烈烈的運動什麼也沒有改變。因此，人們對抗議活動已經厭倦了。”Simon Siu今年37歲，是一名電子產品銷售員。他穿的T恤衫上繪有一個配着“別讓我拍到你(Don't make me shoot you)”字樣的攝像頭。“我們希望人們回來，不過我們也十分疲憊。我們試圖保持忙碌來振作精神。”