朝鮮農業改革遭遇天災挑戰 Slim pickings for North Korea's farmers

To the upbeat strains of “Song of Bumper Crop”, farmers in South Hwanghae province this month performed dances to celebrate improving conditions in the North Korean countryside, “now turning into a good place to live and work thanks to... leadership of the Workers’ party”.

伴隨着《豐收之歌》的歡快節奏，黃海南道(South Hwanghae)的農民們上月用舞蹈表演歌頌朝鮮農村的條件不斷改善，“如今這裏變成一個生活和工作的好地方，多虧了……勞動黨的領導”。

The festivities, as reported by the state news agency, were in keeping with the public agenda of supreme leader Kim Jong Un. During nearly four years in power he has emphasised economic progress, vowing that his people will never have to tighten their belts again, and has overseen agricultural policy reforms that prompted hopeful comparisons with Deng Xiaoping’s early experiments in China.

官方通訊社所報道的這些喜慶活動，與朝鮮最高領袖金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的公開議程一致。執政近4年來，他強調經濟發展，誓言讓朝鮮民衆永遠不再勒緊褲腰帶，並推行農業政策改革。這些措施促使人們將之與鄧小平當年在中國開啓的實驗相提並論，令人心生希望。

But the dancing party came at the outset of what looks set to be the worst harvest of Mr Kim’s reign, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, which is forecasting a 12 per cent year-on-year fall in rice production, with a 30 per cent decline in the smaller wheat and barley crops. “Kim Jong Un has had good harvests so far,” says one South Korean official. “This will be the first time he is squeezed.”

但是，就在農民們載歌載舞之際，朝鮮似乎將迎來金正恩掌權期間收成最糟糕的秋收。據聯合國糧農組織(FAO)預測，朝鮮大米產量將同比下滑12%，較小作物小麥和大麥的產量將減少30%。“金正恩執政這幾年收成一直不錯，”一名韓國官員稱，“這將是他第一次受到壓力。”

Severe drought followed by flooding has caused havoc in North Korea’s agricultural system this year, underscoring the continuing lack of food security, with the state cutting rations this summer to less than half the level needed for basic nutrition. The grim outlook has tempered optimism about the impact of agricultural reforms in recent years, as described to UN agencies by North Korean officials.

今年接連遭遇的嚴重旱災和洪水，對朝鮮的農業系統造成嚴重破壞，凸顯該國持續缺乏糧食安全的現實，政府今年夏天將糧食配給下調至不足維持基本營養所需攝入量的一半以下。朝鮮官員向聯合國機構介紹稱，黯淡的前景挫傷了人們對近年農業改革效果的樂觀態度。

In June 2012, six months after Mr Kim took power, the state promulgated guidelines allowing smaller work teams on farms of as few as 10 people. Two years later, new guidelines declared that teams could now be as small as two households, and that they would be allowed to work the same plot for years at a time. Crucially, these changes have been combined with re allowing teams to keep up to 70 per cent of what they produce instead of handing it to the state.

2012年6月，即金正恩上臺6個月後，朝鮮公佈了指導方針——允許農場組建只有10人的生產小組。兩年後，新的指導方針宣佈，生產小組可由僅僅兩個家庭組成，而且他們將被允許在同一塊地連續耕作數年。關鍵是，這些改變伴隨着允許生產小組保留至多70%收成（而不是上繳國家）的改革措施。

State media did not announce the changes but have referred to them. “The advantage of the ‘field responsibility’ system is that the workforce at each farm regards a small plot as their own,” Ji Myong Su, head of agriculture management research at Pyongyang’s Academy of Agricultural Science, told the state Tongil Sinbo newspaper in June. The speed of grain planting had doubled at the farms where the new system had been implemented, involving some teams as small as four people, he added.

官方媒體並未宣佈這些變化，但提到了相關做法。“‘土地責任制’的優勢是每個農場的勞動力都把小農田當成自己的土地，”平壤農業科學研究院農業管理研究負責人紀明洙(Ji Myong Su) 6月向官媒《統一新報》(Tongil Sinbo)表示。他補充稱，在實施新制度的農場中（包含一些4人小組），栽種穀物的速度加快了一倍。

Another change in 2014 was a dramatic increase in the maximum permitted size of “kitchen gardens”, from 100 to 3,300 square metres, which will encourage more private food production, says Cristina Coslet, an FAO official for east Asia. “I could see the difference between the fields and kitchen gardens [during a 2012 visit] — they look after [the latter] carefully and water them.”

2014年的另一個變化是允許家庭菜園的面積上限戲劇性擴大，從100平米擴大至3300平米。聯合國糧農組織負責東亞的官員克里斯蒂娜科斯利特(Cristina Coslet)稱，這將鼓勵更多個人生產食物。“（2012年訪問朝鮮期間）我可以看出農田和家庭菜園的區別——他們小心地照料着（家庭菜園），不忘記澆水。”

Testimony from defectors and visitors to North Korea suggests that the reforms have been implemented in most agricultural communities but with wide differences between regions, says Kwon Tae-jin, head of North Korea research at Seoul’s GS & J Institute.

首爾農業智庫——GS & J研究所朝鮮研究主管權泰金(Kwon Tae-jin)稱，叛逃者以及訪問過朝鮮的人士的證言似乎表明，大多數農業社區都落實了這些改革，但是不同地區之間存在較大差別。

The changes are part of a long-term expansion of market dynamics in this supposedly planned economy since the famine of the mid-1990s, precipitated by years of under-investment in food production and the abrupt withdrawal of Soviet aid. The public food distribution system broke down, resulting in the starvation of hundreds of thousands, and forcing the survivors to turn to informal markets .

上世紀90年代中期，朝鮮在糧食生產多年投資不足和前蘇聯突然切斷援助的共同作用下發生饑荒，之後朝鮮開始在其號稱的計劃經濟中推行擴大市場活力的長期舉措，金正恩推行的改革是這項長期努力的一部分。饑荒期間，公共糧食分配系統癱瘓，導致數十萬人餓死，倖存者不得不求助於黑市。

Even now, 70 per cent of North Koreans rely primarily on the public distribution system for food, the FAO estimates. But provision can be sporadic, and even the officially declared rations are well below the government’s nominal daily target of 573g of cereal equivalent per person: enough to provide the 2,000 calories widely seen as a minimum for good health. After bad rainfall hit this year’s spring harvest, the government cut the daily personal ration to just 250g.

聯合國糧農組織估計，即使是現在，朝鮮70%的人口仍然主要依賴公共分配系統獲得食物。但是，食物供應得不到保障，就連官方公佈的配給標準也遠低於朝鮮政府規定的每日每人573克口糧的名義目標——被廣泛認爲是足夠提供2000卡路里以維持健康的最低攝入量。降雨偏少影響今年春收後，朝鮮政府將每日每人配給標準削減至僅僅250克。

The latest cuts, by far the most severe since Mr Kim took power, are set to compound a dire situation in much of the rest of the country. A 2012 UN survey found that more than a quarter of North Korean children under 5 had moderate or severe chronic malnutrition.

此次配給下調絕對是自金正恩執政以來最嚴峻的，預計將加劇朝鮮大片地區的糟糕境況。2012年一項聯合國調查發現，朝鮮5歲以下兒童中，四分之一以上存在中度或重度長期營養不良。

Even so, the reforms have provided a significant boost to productivity and helped mitigate the impact of this year’s drought, argues Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, noting that the 2013 harvest was the biggest for 25 years.

首爾國民大學(Kookmin University)教授安德烈瀠科夫(Andrei Lankov)認爲，儘管如此，農業改革對生產率起到了顯著提振效果，有助於緩和今年旱災的影響。他指出2013年是朝鮮25年來收成最好的一年。

Yet by encouraging farmers to retain and sell their produce the government is continuing its dance with powerful market mechanisms that threaten to erode its authority, he says.

不過，蘭科夫稱，通過鼓勵農民保留並銷售自己種植的農產品，朝鮮政府正在繼續與強大的市場機制周旋，後者可能會侵蝕其權威。