陰雲籠罩中國光伏產業 何日東山再起

For a Chinese solar-equipment maker to default may seem like a rare sign of consolidation in an overcrowded sector. Yet don't expect new light to shine on this industry.

中國光伏設備製造商上海超日太陽能科技股份有限公司(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. 簡稱：超日太陽)出現債務違約，這可能是產能過剩的中國光伏產業將進行整合的一個少見的信號。但先不要期待中國光伏產業會東山再起。

Shanghai Chaori Solar has become the first company of any stripe to default in China's domestic bond market. That it was a solar company underscores Beijing's desire to instill some market discipline in a bloated sector fueled by local government-funded companies who have kept making panels despite plummeting prices in recent years. Chaori's default comes after rival Suntech failed. Investors are now turning to another panel-maker, Baoding Tianwei, which this week reported a second year of losses, to see if officials will let it fail.

超日太陽成爲中國國內債券市場上第一家違約的公司。第一家發生債券違約的是光伏企業，這說明中國政府很想把市場約束機制引入到過度膨脹的光伏產業中。導致該產業過度臃腫的是那些由地方政府資助、不顧近年來的價格下跌持續生產光伏面板的公司。超日太陽債務違約是在其競爭對手尚德太陽能(Suntech)破產之後發生的。現在投資者關注點轉向另外一家面板製造商保定天威保變電氣股份有限公司(Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co., , 簡稱：天威保變)，該公司本週公佈連續第二年出現虧損。投資者想看看中國官方是否會讓這家公司破產。

This consolidation is partly why panel prices stabilized last year, says CLSA's Charles Yonts. Higher demand also helped, as China alone doubled its purchases of panels.

里昂證券（亞洲）(CLSA)的Charles Yonts表示，這種行業整合就是去年光伏面板價格企穩的一個原因。需求上升也起到了一定作用，僅中國的面板採購量就增加了一倍。

The problem is prices may not rebound. Manufacturers are investing again, with leading panel-makers planning to increase supply by roughly 30% this year, according to NPD Solarbuzz. Global panel-making capacity should be roughly 60 gigawatts in 2014, more than two-thirds in China, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association forecast last year.

但問題是價格可能不會反彈。製造商們又在投入資金，NPD Solarbuzz的數據顯示，主要面板製造商計劃今年增加30%左右的供應。歐洲光伏產業協會(European Photovoltaic Industry Association)去年預計，2014年全球光伏面板製造產能將達到大約60千兆瓦，其中超過三分之二的產能都在中國。

That's still too much, considering the world's demand for new solar-generated power may just be 45 gigawatts in 2014, says Nomura. China now accounts for 30% of global demand, according to Mr. Yonts--and it doesn't help that starting in January, the government cut by 10% the above-market price it pays utility-size solar farms in the provinces that previously bought most of the panels.

野村(Nomura)認爲這個產能還是太大了，因爲2014年全球的太陽能電力需求可能僅爲45千兆瓦。Yonts稱，目前中國佔全球需求的30%。儘管從1月起，在之前光伏面板採購量最大的省份，成規模太陽能電場高於市場水平的上網電價將下調10%，但這也起不了太大作用。

These farms are far from the regions that need power and burden the transmission network. China is instead offering incentives to build roof-top installations, except that's easier planned than done. It's tough to secure ownership rights to rooftops or arrange financing, says Frank Haugwitz, an independent solar energy consultant.

這些電場遠離需要電力供應的地區，承擔着輸電網絡的負擔。中國轉而爲屋頂太陽能提供激勵措施，但說起來容易做起來難。獨立太陽能諮詢公司Frank Haugwitz表示，很難確定屋頂的所有權，也不好安排融資。

Other big markets aren't looking promising either. Germany is cutting subsidies and Japan may follow suit, while the U.S. has set up trade barriers against China.

其他一些較大的市場化似乎也不樂觀。德國正在削減補貼，日本可能也會緊隨其後，而美國則針對中國設置了貿易壁壘。

That could explain why panel prices are down 4.4% since November, according to PVinsights. This bodes ill for China's panel survivors who should otherwise benefit from their competitors going under. Trina Solar and Jinko Solar, who just started returning to profitability after many quarters of losses, are among the biggest panel players.

PVinsights認爲，這就是爲何面板價格自去年11月以來累計下跌4.4%的原因。這對中國倖存的面板製造商來說不是什麼好兆頭。如果價格不跌，這些公司本可以因競爭對手的破產而受益。天合光能有限公司(Trina Solar Ltd. ADS, TSL)和晶科能源(Jinko Solar)都在規模最大的太陽能面板企業之列。後者在經過多個季度的虧損之後剛剛恢復贏利。

Consolidation will only continue if Beijing can force local governments to cut production--and give up the jobs that go with it. That's a tough sell as China's economic growth weakens.

只有在中央政府迫使地方政府削減產能，並放棄該行業的一些就業的條件下，太陽能產業的整合才能繼續。隨着中國經濟增長的放緩，這很難讓人接受。