蘋果的未來 不得不進行的改革

APPLE prides itself on constantly re-imagining the future, but even the world's leading gadget-maker likes to dwell on the past too. Thirty years ago Steve Jobs commanded the stage at the Flint Centre for the Performing Arts near Apple's headquarters in Cupertino to show off the new Macintosh computer. On September 9th Mr Jobs's successor, Tim Cook, held a similar performance in the same location to thunderous applause. Those invited were given a chance to play with the gadgets presented on stage: two new iPhones and a wearable device, called the Apple Watch. “This is the next chapter in Apple's story, ” he said, sounding much like the young Mr Jobs in 1984.

蘋果公司以能夠不斷勾畫未來藍圖而自豪，但即使作爲世界上最頂尖的小型設備製造商，蘋果也難免沉溺於過去。三十年前，史蒂芬·喬布斯在弗林特演藝中心（位於庫比蒂諾的蘋果公司總部附近）展示Macintosh電腦；今年9月，喬布斯的繼任者，蒂姆·庫克，在同一個舞臺面對千萬熱情觀衆舉行了一個類似的產品展示活動。被邀請到的人有機會試用展臺上的設備：兩臺新款iPhone和一款叫做Apple Watch可佩戴手錶。像當年的喬布斯一樣，庫克說：“這是蘋果的下一篇章！”

It may well be true—but not for the reasons most people might think. Consumers, analysts and investors have been howling for proof that Apple can still do the magic tricks of the Jobs era; iPad sales have weakened in recent quarters and the iPhone, launched a tech aeon ago in 2007, still generates more than half of the firm's revenues. Yet lost in the maelstrom of snazzy new gadgets, applause and photos was an important shift: this week's announcements showed that Apple's future will be less about hardware and more about its “ecosystem”—a combination of software, services, data and a plethora of partners.

這可能是真的——但原因並非大多數人想的那樣。消費者、市場分析員、投資者一直都在極力試圖證明蘋果可以再創喬布斯時代的傳奇；然而，iPad近幾季的銷量已有所下降，於2007年發佈的iPhone掀起了一段科技狂潮，它至今仍然佔據蘋果公司收入的半壁江山。然而，在充斥着時髦的新產品、掌聲、美圖的狂潮中，被人忽略的是蘋果的重大轉型：本週發佈會表示蘋果未來的重心將從硬件轉移到“生態系統”——一個集軟件、服務、數據、衆多合作伙伴於一體的有機系統。

If Apple were simply a hardware-maker, there would be reason to worry. It is losing market share to rivals such as Samsung of South Korea and Xiaomi of China, which make cheaper devices, and to Google's Android operating system, which runs on 71% of the world's smartphones. Apple's average selling price is $609, compared with $249 for smartphones worldwide, according to IDC, a market-research firm. That is good for profits, but it makes Apple increasingly a niche player, somewhat like a luxury-goods firm, says Colin Gillis of BGC, a stockbroker.

如果蘋果只是一家簡單的硬件製造商，那麼情況是讓人擔憂的。蘋果的市場份額正在縮小，相反的韓國的三星和中國的小米因爲價格低廉而佔據着越來越多的市場份額，並且谷歌的安卓操作系統佔領了全球70%的只能手機。據市場調研公司IDC的數據，蘋果手機的平均售價爲609美元，而全球智能手機均價爲249美元。一名來自BGC的股票經紀人科林.吉利斯認爲：這樣利潤固然客觀，但是這使得蘋果市場越來越成爲一種縫隙市場，有點類似於奢侈品企業。

As with Apple's existing products, much effort went into the watch's design. Its backplate contains sensors that measure the user's vital signs; and people can send their heartbeat to other watch-wearers—as a new sort of expressive message. But starting at $349, and only usable in conjunction with an iPhone, it looks unlikely to be a serious competitor to other expensive watches (see article).

與現有的產品一樣，蘋果爲設計這款手錶做出了很大努力。它的後板裝有感應器，可以測量出佩帶者的生命特徵；作爲一種新的信息表達方式，人們可以將心率數據發送給其他的手錶用戶。但是它的售價爲349美元起，而且只能與iphone聯合使用，這使得它難以敵對其他名貴手錶。

Still, many are likely to stick with their iPhones and even plunk down the money for an Apple Watch, because of the firm's ecosystem. Apple is considered a laggard in online offerings, especially since it bungled the launch of its map service. Its services and apps can be maddening. But iTunes, Apple's media store, now boasts more than 800m active users, three times as many as Amazon's. Apple's software and services category, which includes iTunes, its Apps Store, revenue from warranties and other businesses, brought in sales of more than $16 billion in 2013 and is growing steadily.

但是許多人仍然願意堅守蘋果陣營，繼續使用iPhone,甚至是爲了蘋果的“生態系統”而大手筆地花錢購買Apple Watch。在線服務方面，蘋果被認爲是落後者，尤其是它粗製濫造的地圖服務。它的服務和應用有時候讓人抓狂。但是，蘋果的媒體商店iTunes，它的活躍用戶現在已經飆升超過了8億，是亞馬遜的三倍之多。蘋果的軟件和服務，包括iTunes、應用Store，來自授權和其他業務的收入等，2013年超過160億美元，並依然在穩定增長。

Apple's watch is supposed to help the firm expand into new areas. One example is a mobile wallet. It aims to replace swiping credit cards with the tap of an Apple watch (or an iPhone) on a device connected to a retailer's cash register. Apple's new health and fitness applications help people monitor their workouts. The firm's new operating systems, due out soon, will allow its devices to work together seamlessly: an e-mail started on an iPhone can be finished on an iMac.

蘋果試圖通過智能手錶拓展到新領域，移動錢包就是一個例子，它的目標是用蘋果手錶（或手機）輕觸與收款機相連的設備來取代劃信用卡。蘋果新的健身應用可以幫助人們監視自己的運動過程。另外，新的操作系統即將推出，它將實現設備的無縫操作：如在iPhone上開始寫的電子郵件可以在iMac電腦上繼續寫完。

For Ben Wood of CCS Insight, another market-research firm, Apple's plan is to be even more like the Hotel California (as in the Eagles' song), “where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”. The more Apple-gadget owners store their data in them, from photos to health information, the more they are locked in, and must stick with Apple.

另一家市場調研公司CCS Insight 的本.伍德認爲，蘋果的計劃更像是“加州旅館”（老鷹樂隊的歌）：“你可以隨時退房，但卻永遠不會離開。”蘋果用戶在系統中儲存的數據越多，從照片到健康信息，他們就越依賴蘋果。

At the same time, Apple is trying to become more open to partners—a big change for the firm. “There has always been a huge tension between keeping control and opening up” at Apple, explains Michael Cusumano of MIT's Sloan School of Management. Mr Jobs saw Apple products as complete works of art and never wanted them unbundled. Only after the executive team rebelled, for instance, did he relent and in 2003 let iTunes become available on Windows—a move that dramatically increased sales of the iPod.

與此同時，蘋果正嘗試向合作伙伴們更開放——這對蘋果是個好機會。麻省理工斯隆管理學院的邁克爾.庫森曼諾解釋說，就開放程度問題，蘋果內部一直存在很大分歧。在喬布斯看來，蘋果的產品是一個完整的藝術作品，絕不希望它被拆分。直到管理團隊出現反叛之後，他纔在2003年做了退步，讓iTune可以通過Windows訪問——這一舉措大大地提升了iPod的銷量。

Three years after Mr Jobs's death, Apple seems to be ready to go further, hoping to entice other firms to contribute to its ecosystem and make it more attractive. Earlier this year Apple announced a partnership with IBM, as well as changes that make it easier for outside developers to design apps for the iPhone. And Apple's watch will have third-party apps from the start. The iPhone launched without the app store; it opened only a year later, after many outside developers had hacked the device, allowing them to write apps for it.

喬布斯去世了三年，蘋果似乎要採取進一步行動，希望通過與其他公司合作來構建蘋果的“生態系統”，使其更具吸引力。今年早些時候，蘋果就宣佈與IBM合作，同時作了些改變以方便外部開發者爲iPhone設計應用。並且蘋果手錶一開始就會有第三方應用。iPhone剛發行的時候並沒有應用商店，直到一年後許多外界開發商黑進了手機，蘋果才勉強允許他們開放應用。

The new openness does not only apply to technology. Mr Cook has let outsiders join his inner circle, hiring executives from retail and other industries to expand Apple's expertise. He has also overseen the largest acquisition in Apple's history, the $3 billion purchase in May of Beats, a headphones and music-streaming company. For its new payment system it teamed up with big retailers, such as Whole Foods and Walgreens, and credit-card firms, including MasterCard and Visa.

這種新的開放制度不僅適用於技術層面，庫克已經允許外界人士參與它的內部圈子，並且聘請零售和其他行業的管理者來擴展蘋果公司的業務面。庫克見證了蘋果史上最大的一起併購案：蘋果於今年5月斥資30億美元收購了Beats(一家生產耳機和音樂流媒體公司）。至於其新開發的支付體系，蘋果將與各大零售商進行合作，如有機食品連鎖店Whole Foods 和沃爾格林，以及信用卡公司，包括萬事達卡和Visa卡。

This opening-up may need to go further, to keep up with Google's ecosystem. The internet giant's services still beat Apple's. And it not only lets device-makers modify Android, but also gives it away (albeit with conditions, such as the requirement to carry Google's services). “Apple v Android” could still end up a repeat of “Apple v Windows”: in personal computers Apple lost the battle against Microsoft because it refused to license its operating system to other hardware-makers.

爲了趕上谷歌的生態系統，蘋果的對外開放制度需要更進一步。目前蘋果的服務仍遜於這家互聯網巨頭。谷歌不僅允許製造商們改造安卓系統，而且可以完全撒手不管（雖然這是有條件的，比如必須安裝谷歌的某些服務）。“蘋果VS安卓”的結局可能會和“蘋果VS Windows”一樣：在個人電腦市場，蘋果因爲拒絕向其他硬件製造商認證其操作系統，所以不敵微軟。

Umberto Eco, an Italian novelist, once compared Apple's platform to Catholicism and Microsoft's to Protestantism. The Macintosh, he wrote, “tells the faithful how they must proceed, step by step”. By contrast, Windows “allows free interpretation of takes for granted the idea that not all can achieve salvation.” This still rings true today, but Apple is clearly going through a Reformation.

一名意大利小說家恩貝託.艾克曾經將蘋果比作天主教，而將微軟比作新教。他這樣寫道：Mac電腦“告訴信徒必須沿着一個方向，一步一步堅定地走下去。”相反的，Windows則“允許對教義進行自由的解釋，並且認爲不是所有的想法都可以最終解決問題。”這些道理至今仍然受用，但是很顯然，蘋果已經開始改變並且將進一步改革。