特斯拉超級電池工廠可能未投產已過時

A disruptive shadow looms over Tesla Motors’ giantNevada “gigafactory”—the threat of rapidly advancing battery technology. While plenty of hurdles face new battery tech, the emergence of a viable and significantly better battery in the next five years could turn Tesla’s $5 billion facility for mass producing lithium-ion batteries into a giga-albatross.

面對電池技術迅速發展帶來的威脅，特斯拉設在內華達州的超級電池工廠（Gigafactory）籠罩在一片陰雲之中。儘管新技術面臨諸多障礙，但如果在五年內出現既實用又遠好於現有產品的電池，特斯拉斥資50億美元新建的建鋰離子聚合物電池工廠就可能變成巨大負擔。

In January, Fuji Pigment Co. Ltd. (not affiliated with Fujifilm) announced that it had made a significant breakthrough in aluminum-air battery technology. Aluminium-air batteries have a theoretical capacity morethan 40 times greater than the lithium-ion cells Tesla will soon mass-produce, and Fuji Pigment has stated it will commercialize its innovation by the end of 2015. This means that the gigafactory’s products could already be outclassed before its target 2016 opening—and long before the estimated 7-10 years of full production it could take to recoup the factory’s costs.

今年1月份，富士色素株式會社（並非富士子公司）宣佈，已在鋁空氣電池技術上取得重大突破。與特斯拉即將量產的鋰聚電池相比，鋁空氣電池理論容量多出40倍以上。而且富士色素表示，將在今年底前實現項目商業化。這意味着，定於2016年投產的特斯拉超級電池工廠可能從一開始就處於落後位置，該廠預計還需要7-10年才能達到設計產能並收回成本。

Battery innovation takes place within a rigid structure: every battery has two ‘sides,’ the cathode and anode, which react through an electrolyte medium to produce power. Analuminum-air battery generates electricity from the reaction of oxygen and aluminum, using water as an electrolyte. A standard aluminium-air reaction consumes the aluminum anode, which must be physically replaced rather than electrically recharged. But Fuji Pigment claims that, by adding strategically placed layers of ceramic and carbon, it has managed to suppress corrosion and reaction byproducts, creating an aluminium-air battery that can be recharged multiple times by simply adding water.

電池領域的創新遵循的規律基本一致：電池都有陰極和陽極，靠陰陽極之間的電解質發生反應產生電流。鋁空氣電池以水爲電解質，通過氧氣和鋁的反應產生電流。標準的鋁-空氣反應會消耗鋁陽極，因此必須替換陽極，並不能簡單充電了事。富士色素表示，通過在關鍵位置放置陶瓷和碳精片隔層，即可抑制腐蝕和副產品，這樣鋁空氣電池只需加水就能多次充電。

Dr. Mark Hersam, professor of materials science and engineering at Northwestern University, says that it would be “stunning” if Fuji Pigment hit their target for commercialization. Among other unaddressed issues, he points out that aluminium-air batteries physically contract as they discharge, which can lead to fracturing and make them difficult to integrate into fault-intolerant automotive systems.

美國西北大學材料科學和工程學教授馬克o赫爾薩姆指出，如果富士色素真能完成鋁空氣電池的商業化，“非常了不起”。不過他認爲還有一些問題沒有解決，比如鋁空氣電池的體積在使用過程中會縮小，可能出現破裂，因此很難集成到無法容錯的汽車系統中。

In an email, Ryohei Mori, Fuji Pigment’s lead researcher on the aluminium-air project, sounded a slightly more cautious note than the company’s January press release. “We are still at developing stage, and maybe in the near future . . . we can work together with large scale.”

在一封電子郵件中，富士色素鋁空氣電池項目首席研究員森亮平的態度就略顯謹慎，不似公司1月公告中那般樂觀。他寫道：“我們仍處於開發階段，也許近期內可能大規模生產。”

But Fuji Pigment is not the only company working on a better battery. Israel’s Phinergy is also pursuing the aluminium-air dream, while American startups Pathionand Sakti 3 are looking at an even more radical innovation—solid-state batteries that replace liquid electrolytes with ceramic or crystal. Sakti 3 has successfully demoed a battery that produces 1,000 watt-hours of energy per liter of battery volume, which in practice could more than double the driving range of a current Tesla. Pathion CEO Michael Liddle projects that solid-state battery technology will be market-ready within two years.

不過，苦心鑽研先進電池技術的並不只有富士色素一家。以色列公司Phinergy也在追尋鋁空氣電池夢。美國初創企業PathionandSakti 3則着眼於更激進的創新，他們的想法是用陶瓷或水晶代替液態電解質，製造固態電池；該公司已成功展示了一種新電池，能量密度爲每升1000瓦時，一旦啓用可將特斯拉的行駛里程增加一倍以上。PathionandSakti 3首席執行官邁克爾o利德爾預計，固態電池技術可在兩年內投放市場。

Of course, the main point of the gigafactory is not to produce cutting-edge batteries, but to produce existing tech on a scale that will bring costs down—Tesla hopes to sell an electric sedan for $35,000. But in this regard, too, both aluminium-air and solid-state batteries have a potential edge. Aluminum is far cheaper than lithium, and solid-state batteries could be ‘printed’ like computer chips, a much more efficient process than the layering and rolling of metal and gel that produces lithium-ion batteries.

當然，特斯拉的電池工廠主要任務不是生產最先進的電池，而是採用現有技術並通過量產來降低成本。特斯拉理想的電動車售價爲3.5萬美元。在降低成本方面，鋁空氣電池和固態電池都有潛在優勢。鋁比鋰便宜得多，固態電池則可以像計算機芯片一樣“壓制”出來，比起鋰聚電池生產所需的金屬分層和軋製工藝效率高多了。

According to Dan Radomski, vice president for industry and venture development at the consulting firmNextEnergy, it would be very difficult for Tesla to pivot in response to these innovations. “It’s not too much different from us going from VHS to disc. It changes the entire supply chain.”

據諮詢公司NextEnergy負責工業及創新發展的副總裁丹o拉多姆斯基介紹，對特斯拉來說，針對新出現的創新調整非常困難，“這就和從盒式錄像帶轉向光盤差不多，會改變整個供應鏈。”

The demands of the automotive sector may buy Tesla some time. Cars are subject to high and low temperatures that have a significant impact on battery performance, and the standard for safety is understandably high. While lithium-ion batteries have shown some problems in responding to high temperatures, decades of testing have gone into gaining it acceptance for use in cars.

不過，汽車行業的需求也許能爲特斯拉爭取一些時間。高溫和低溫對電池性能影響很大，相應的安全標準當然也很嚴格。雖然鋰聚電池在高溫環境下有些問題，但經歷了幾十年的考驗後在汽車上使用已經問題不大。

Tesla will also likely have some options for upgrading the gigafactory’s lithium-ion products. Researchers atNangyang Technological University have developed a fast-charging titanium dioxide anode, and Mark Hersam’s team at Northwestern has doubled the capacity of a lithium-ion anode by interlacing materials like graphene. Though cathode advances have trailed, integrating new materialswould not require a wholesale overhaul of the gigafactory’slithium-ion production process.

特斯拉也可以選擇改進超級電池工廠的鋰聚電池。新加坡南洋理工大學的研究人員已經開發出可快速充電的二氧化鈦陽極；馬克o赫爾薩姆教授在西北大學的團隊則通過加入石墨烯等材料，將鋰聚電池陽極的失電子能力提高了一倍。儘管陰極方面已經落後，但特斯拉整合新材料應該不用徹底革新鋰聚電池生產工藝。

Ultimately, the biggest question mark for the gigafactory’slong-term viability are less technological than strategic. An innovation in a lab is not the same as a working product, and Pathion’s Michael Liddle says that the piecemeal nature of battery research has limited real-world advances. Many startups and researchers can produce a better cathode, anode, or electrolyte, but all three must work together perfectly to make a battery. The capital to bring the pieces together, and bring production of new batteries to scale, has been scarce.

說到底，特斯拉的電池工廠長期維繼的最大問題在於戰略，而不是技術。畢竟，實驗室裏的創新和實用產品不是一回事。正如PathionandSakti 3首席執行官邁克爾o利德爾所言，電池研究處於“零敲碎打”狀態，實際推進有限。許多初創公司和研究人員都可以製造出更好的陰極、陽極或者電解質，但三者得完美結合才能成爲電池。一直以來，很少有資金用在結合三者並大規模量產新電池方面。

But that’s likely to change with major manufacturers likeCadillac and BMW moving more aggressively into electrics. With range an ever more vital competitive point, increasing amounts of capital will be chasing the next big battery (GM is a major investor in Sakti 3). That could push the rate of change beyond what even Tesla CEO Elon Musk could have foreseen.

隨着凱迪拉克和寶馬等主要汽車廠商更積極開拓電動汽車市場，局面可能改變。電池技術已成關鍵競爭點，花在新一代主流電池上的資金也不斷增多（通用汽車就是PathionandSakti 3的主要投資者之一）。電池領域正飛速革新，未來很可能會超過特斯拉CEO埃隆o穆斯克的想象。