倫敦奧運影響英國國債拍賣

As London braces for feared transport congestion when the Olympic Games start this month, the disruption looks set to hit an unexpected victim: the government bond market.

本月奧運在即，倫敦正在準備迎接可怕的交通堵塞。交通堵塞可能會帶來一個意想不到的"受害者"：英國國債市場。

The UK Treasury has called off its weekly gilt auctions for a four-week period, because it is afraid that too many bond traders will be working from home – or not at all – during the -Olympics.

由於擔憂奧運期間有太多債券交易員在家工作甚至根本不工作，英國財政部已取消了爲期四周的周度國債拍賣。

With many of the largest banks – which make up the elite Gilt-Edged Market Makers Association exclusively allowed to buy securities directly from the Debt Management Office – dotted along the transport routes to and from the main Olympic site, many employers are making arrangements for staff to work from home.

英國國債做市商協會(Gilt-Edged Market Makers Association)擁有直接從英國債務管理辦公室(DMO)購買證券的排他性權力。該協會的諸多大型成員銀行都位於往來奧運場館的交通線上，其中很多銀行都安排員工奧運期間在家裏工作。

The DMO confirmed that the prospect of so few gilts traders being at their desks with trading screens switched on had caused it to take the unusual step of rescheduling auctions.

DMO證實，由於屆時進入場內坐在交易臺前打開電腦屏幕交易的國債交易員可能寥寥無幾，該辦公室已被迫採取非常規舉措，對拍賣日程做出調整。

Such thin staffing raises the prospect of a "sloppy" auction that could force the Exchequer to pay more to borrow. "Why take operational risk when you don't have to?" the DMO said.

交易員過少可能導致拍賣活動"低迷"，擡高英國財政部的舉債成本。DMO表示："爲什麼要冒這種毫無必要的操作風險呢？"

The absence of new gilts auctions may have a serious knock-on effect, economists said.

經濟學家表示，英國國債拍賣暫停可能引起嚴重的連鎖反應。

If, as expected, the Bank of England gives the go-ahead this week for another round of gilts purchases to help boost the economy, it may have to slow these down because of the Olympic effect.

如果說像外界預期的那樣，英國央行(Bank of England)本週准許實施新一輪國債購買計劃會對英國經濟起到提振作用，那麼由於奧運的原因，這一努力的進程可能不得不放慢。

Buying up gilts in a market where no new securities are being issued could distort interest rates in unpredictable ways, economists warned.

經濟學家警告稱，在沒有新債發行的市場購買國債可能會以不可預知的方式扭曲利率。

While the regular calendar of gilts auctions shows sales of government securities nearly every week, and sometimes more than once a week, there are none scheduled for the period between July 19 and August 16. However, there is very heavy issuance immediately before and after those dates.

根據英國國債拍賣的常規日程，幾乎每週都會有國債發售活動，有時甚至一週不止一次。但在7月19日到8月16日這段期間，卻沒有安排任何拍賣活動。不過，在這段期間的前後都會有規模很大的國債發售。

The Olympics open on July 27 and close on August 12.

倫敦奧運會將於7月27日開幕，於8月12日閉幕。

"It's a ‘bums on seats' issue," said an economist at one of the UK's largest banks which, like many of its counterparts, is based at Canary Wharf, London's second financial district.

英國一家大銀行的一位經濟學家表示："沒辦法，看比賽的人太多。"與很多英國銀行一樣，這位經濟學家所在的銀行也位於倫敦第二大金融區"金絲雀碼頭"(Canary Wharf)。

The station at Canary Wharf is a key Olympics hub on the Jubilee underground line, and has been designated as likely to be "exceptionally busy" during the games.

金絲雀碼頭站是倫敦地鐵銀禧線(Jubilee Line)在奧運期間的一個關鍵樞紐，屆時很可能會"異常繁忙"。