NBA新賽季誰的MVP賠率最高?

If last year's MVP contest is any indication, the NBA's currently working with one of the deepest fields in its history. Hopefully this year we'll continue to build on the theme.

如果去年的NBA競賽算是某種提示的話，近期NBA處於對其歷史上最深入的領域之一產生影響，那麼希望今年的競爭會繼續談論這個話題。

More personal attacks on media members, more public sniping from league executives, more historic efficiency, more outrageous game-winners, and more drama that carries us right to the final week of the year.

越是對媒者人身攻擊，越是引致上層的公然指責，就越是創歷史性的高效，更多破天荒的決勝球和更多的戲劇性情節，這些將伴隨我們直到這個賽季的最後一週。

That's the dream. Let's do it all over again.

這就像做夢一樣。讓我們一切重新開始。

For now, here are my favorite bets on the board.

現在，將是我最喜歡的下注環節。

James Harden: 10/1

（詹姆斯-哈登：1賠10）

Let's have a moment of silence for the value of winning and the 2017 MVP race...

讓我們爲2017年的MVP競賽和評判默哀一會兒……

As for this year, Harden low-key has some of the worst odds on the board. He should probably be closer to 25/1.

至於今年，哈登的重要性下降，與之對應的賠率也應該下調，他應該是在大概1賠25左右。

AAU... All-Star game... Draft Lottery...2017 MVP race. Basketball is losing its focus on winning. — Daryl Morey (@dmorey) April 8, 2017

AAU……全明星賽……樂透選秀……2017MVP競賽。籃球正在一點點的失去對勝利的關注。——達雷爾-莫雷 2017年4月8日

First of all, he'll be splitting possessions with Chris Paul. Second, the Rockets have some of the highest expectations in the league.

首先，他要和克里斯-保羅分享球權。其次，火箭是聯盟幾支備受大衆期望的球隊之一。

In light of those two factors, there's a good chance that Houston will struggle to match preseason hype—currently pegged by Vegas as No. 2 in the West—and Harden's numbers will take a significant step back from last year's "Steve Nash From Outer Space" campaign.

鑑於這兩點，休斯頓仍有很大的機率難以達到休賽期的期望——現在被拉斯維加斯列爲西部第二——哈登的數據將從去年的“外太空來的史蒂夫-納什”運動中有所回落。

The Rockets will be a better team overall and Harden could be as deadly as ever, but the narratives are not working in his favor.

火箭將會成爲一支更好的球隊，哈登和以前同樣能在球場上有置敵於死地的能力，但故事情節並不如他所願。

Russell Westbrook: 9/1

（拉塞爾-威斯布魯克：1賠9）

Given how divisive Westbrook was even in the year he won (averaging a triple-double, and regularly breathing fire live on NBA TV and beating teams by himself), it's hard to imagine he wins again.

鑑於哪怕他在拿下MVP年所引起的各種爭議（場均三雙，經常在電視直播上上演單騎救主的場面），很難想象他再次拿到了MVP。

At the end of that Rockets series even people who voted for Westbrook were like, "Alright, cool that was fun. Never again." Plus, like Harden, his numbers will take a step back with a second superstar on hand, and the bar for OKC success is set higher this year.

在與火箭系列賽的最後，投票給他的人也這麼說：“好吧，很酷，很有趣。但沒有下次了。”此外，和哈登一樣，隨着另一名超級巨星的到來他的數據也會退步，同時今年俄克拉荷馬雷霆的成功標準也會被設定得更高。

So Westbrook cracks the top 10 for two reasons.

所以，維斯布魯克進入前十有兩個原因。

First, because adding George really does give him a killer weapon to run with, and arguably the exact player you would design in a lab to be Westbrook's sidekick.

首先，喬治的到來的確能成爲殺手鐗，可以說是雷霆的實驗室裏威斯布魯克真正的助手。

If they click early, it's possible they finish with one of the two or three best records in the league, in which case Westbrook has gotta be in the MVP mix.

如果他們能夠提前產生化學反應，將很可能以聯盟前三的成績結束常規賽，如果是這樣，威斯布魯克會再次在MVP候選名單中。

The second reason is style of play. Westbrook went so nuts last year—he took eighteen threes in Game 5 against Houston—that there's room to improve, at least in the eyes of voters. Could he tone down his game to fit with George, win big, and win over a bunch of critics along the way?

第二個原因是球風，威斯布魯克去年有些太過於偏執——對休斯頓的第五場季後賽他出手了18次三分——這是他可以提升改進的地方，至少在投票者的眼中是這樣的。他能稍稍調整他的比賽風格以適應喬治，會更能夠幫助贏得球賽，這不就能讓批評他的人無話可說了嗎？

Probably not. But the possibility at least gives him a better shot than Harden.

也許不會。但這至少給了他一個比哈登更好的機會。

Steph Curry: 15/1

（斯蒂芬-庫裏：1賠15）

Steph is one of the three best players in the league, and in a literal sense, he is more valuable to his team than any other player in the league. So, yeah, 15/1 feels insane.

斯蒂芬是聯盟內最好的三名球員之一，在字面意思上，他對於他的球隊比聯盟內其他球員更有價值。所以，1賠15真的是太瘋狂了。

But it may be difficult for Curry to ever win another MVP.

但對於庫裏而言要，再拿一次MVP可能會很艱難。

Between fatigue after the past two MVPs, both of which have somehow become controversial (one of the dumbest NBA developments of the past 20 years) and the "But He Has Kevin Durant On His Team! excuse, it may be another 5-10 years before people appreciate how incredible this Curry run has been.

庫裏的兩次MVP都莫名其妙地變得有爭議（過去20年內NBA最糟糕的發展狀況之一），而且在連莊MVP後的審美疲勞和“但他有杜蘭特在他的球隊中！”，可能還得5～10年的時間人們才能欣賞到庫裏引領的潮流多麼不可思議。

That's probably how this plays out. Still: If you can get 15/1 odds on the player who's actually the most valuable force on a team that could win 70 games, it's a pretty solid investment.

大概就是這麼結束的。即便如此：但是如果一支能拿70勝的球隊中實際最有價值的球員賠率能夠達到1賠15，這筆投資還是非常值得的。

LeBron James: 5/1

（勒布朗-詹姆斯：1賠5）

This doesn't feel like a LeBron MVP year. That was last season. "But he'll be playing without Kyrie," you say. "The Cavs could still go win 58 games and it'll be one, long coronation for LeBron."

這感覺不像是勒布朗的MVP年。那是上個賽季。“但是他和凱里一起打球了，”你會這麼說，“騎士仍然會拿下58場勝利，這段時間將是爲勒布朗加冕。”

Maybe. But do you realize how crazy it is that we've spent three months watching the Cavs endure a regime change in the front office, league-wide speculation about next summer, a franchise-changing trade, and LeBron hasn't said a word on the subject?

或許吧。但你的確要知道過去三個月時間我們一直在看騎士經歷了制服組的人員變更，全聯盟都在猜測明年夏天勒布朗的去向，改變兩支球隊的大交易，和這期間勒布朗對這些話題隻字不提是多麼不可思議的事嗎？

I'm sure he'll address all this at some point soon, but it's hard to believe that anxiety over his free agency will subside at that point.

我確信他會在某個時間就這些問題說點什麼，但很難相信他成爲自由球員的輿論在此時此刻會平息。

This year feels like it will be less about appreciating LeBron's greatness and more about decoding his weirdness.

感覺今年像是更少地欣賞勒布朗的偉大，而更多地破解他的不可思議。

What do the Instagram videos mean?

那麼Instagram上的視頻到底意味着什麼呢？

Kevin Durant: 5/1

（凱文-杜蘭特：1賠5）

This feels like KD's year, especially as the Warriors widen the gap between themselves and the rest of the league and the NBA becomes a world that orbits around the Warriors.

今年看上去像是KD之年，特別是當勇士拉大了他們和聯盟其他球隊的差距，NBA的世界變成了主要圍繞着勇士。

Durant might've won it last year, too, if not for the injury that derailed the second half of his regular season.

杜蘭特去年也本有可能拿到MVP，如果不是因爲傷病破壞了他的下半賽季。

He was playing the most efficient basketball of his life, his length and versatility on defense allowed Golden State to make the transition to a new lineup look way too easy, and his presence turned a great Warriors team into what might be the best basketball team ever assembled.

他打出了職業生涯目前最高效的一個賽季，他的身高和防守端的優勢全面讓金州勇士輕鬆地過度到一個新的陣容。同時他的存在也讓原本就是超級強隊的勇士隊變成變成了可能是籃球史上最好配置的球隊。

It's tough to separate his value from Steph Curry—not to mention Draymond—but that may not matter.

很難把他的價值成就與斯蒂芬-庫裏分割開——更不要說德雷蒙德——但這也許並不重要。

Sometimes players are so dominant that context and narrative become secondary. For large portions of last season KD was playing basically perfect basketball.

有時候某些球員是如此重要，使得環境和故事都成了次要的。在上個賽季的大部分時間裏KD在籃球場的表現是近乎完美的。

That continued in the playoffs, and especially the Finals, and look how that ended. This season could be a continuation on that theme. Except...

在季後賽，特別是總決賽階段，他的完美表現繼續上演，我們見證了它（那個賽季）是如何結束的。這個賽季可能是這個主題的延續，除非……

Kawhi Leonard: 6/1

（科懷-倫納德：1賠6）

Kawhi had an excellent case for winning MVP last year. His team won more games than James "Winning Used To Matter" Harden, he was dominant on both ends of the floor, and he closed games as effectively for San Antonio as Westbrook did for OKC.

科懷上個賽季也有極好的機會贏得MVP。他的球隊比詹姆斯-“勝利高於一切”-哈登的球隊贏了更多比賽，他掌控了球場攻守兩端，他在關鍵比賽時對於聖安東尼奧的意義和威斯布魯克對雷霆的意義相同。

As the season unfolded, not everyone noticed how dominant his offense had become.

隨着賽季的開始，並不是所有人都注意到他在進攻端的統治力。

Calling him a "two-way superstar" was almost misleading; he played defense, yeah, but he was also carrying the Spurs offense with some of the most clinical iso-scoring we've seen since Jordan and Kobe.

稱他爲“雙向超級巨星”幾乎是一種誤導；他是防守端的核心毋庸置疑，但他同樣能在喬丹和科比之後用最無情的單打得分能力帶動馬刺的進攻端。

The problem was that when the race began to heat up down the stretch, Kawhi slowed down, while Westbrook continued to go nuts. Then the playoffs happened—27.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and a Conference Finals trip—and everyone realized how incredible Kawhi had become.

問題在於，當MVP的競賽升溫到衝刺階段時，科懷減速了，而威斯布魯克的表現依舊瘋狂。然後季後賽開始了——27.7分7.8籃板4.6助攻和一次分區決賽之旅——所有人都意識到了科懷變得有多麼不可思議。

Now it's a new year. New race.

現在，是新的一年。新的賽季。

And I need you to look at the rest of this list and see that almost every other MVP candidate has more help.

我需要你明白的是這份MVP候選名單中的其他幾乎所有候選人都擁有了更多的幫手。

I need you think about it—really think about it—and ask yourself whether you trust anyone outside of Golden State to finish with a better record than San Antonio.

我需要你思考一下——想清楚這個問題——自問除了金州勇士以外，你還相信誰的戰績比聖安東尼奧更好。

I need you to realize that Tony Parker will miss half the year, LaMarcus Aldridge is fading, Pau Gasol is pushing 40, and it won't matter.

我需要你意識到託尼-帕克將缺陣半年的時間，拉馬庫斯-阿爾德里奇狀態下滑，保羅-加索爾接近40，但這些都不重要。

I need you to look at this picture of Kawhi Leonard walking through the summer in his Spurs game shorts, waiting for an opportunity to kill again.

我需要你看看這張照片，科懷-倫納德穿着馬刺運動衫渡過炎炎盛夏，等待下一次的大殺特殺。

I need you to go back and watch these highlights of Game 4 of Spurs-Grizzlies.

我需要你回去看一下馬刺和灰熊系列賽第四場的高光鏡頭。

I need you to understand that Kawhi Leonard is winning MVP in 2018.

我需要你明白，科懷-倫納德將會是2018年MVP最有力的競爭者之一。

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